Tough governorship battle expected despite PDP victory in presidential election

Some analysts believe that the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections in Bauchi State have made it easier to predict the possible results of the governorship elections, which will be held in the state and 27 others in Nigeria on Friday.

The race to occupy the Government House in Bauchi is realistically between Governor Bala Mohammed of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Sadique Abubakar, the former chief of staff of the Nigerian Air Force who is a candidate from All Progressive Congress (APC) in the election.

A close analysis of political developments in the state shows that Governor Muhammad has a mountain to climb to retain his seat on Saturday.

The PDP won the presidential election in the state but this was because groups within the party who were opponents of the governor agreed to work with him for the party because of public sympathy for the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. According to the results announced by INEC, Atiku polled 426,607 votes to defeat Bola Tinubu of APC who polled 316,693 votes. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) came third with 72,103 votes to push Peter Obi of the Labor Party to fourth place with 26,373 votes.

Political observers in the state believe that the governor’s opponent in the PDP will return to the field and do battle with him going to the polls on Saturday.

This could be a reenactment of the scenario in 2019 when former governor Abubakar Muhammed of APC lost his re-election bid two weeks after his party’s presidential candidate swept the polls in the state in 2019. In a very close contest, the incumbent governor polled 500,625 votes lost to the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory and PDP candidate who polled 515,113 votes. In the presidential election in the state, President Muhammadu Buhari polled 798,428 votes to defeat Atiku who scored 209,313 votes.

This year, Atiku won in all local government areas in Bauchi south senatorial zone, including Bogoro, Tafawa Balewa, Dass, Kirfi, Alkaleri, Toro, and Bauchi. But all the National Assembly seats in the region – where the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, and Governor Mohammed’s top political foe, Bello Kirfi, are influential – were won by APC candidates.

Overall, the PDP won two senatorial seats in the state while the APC won the Bauchi South seat. In the House of Representatives elections, the PDP won seven seats while the APC won five. Bauchi South has seven local government areas – Bauchi, Bogoro, Toro, Tafawa Balewa, Dass, Kirfi and Alkaleri. The four most influential politicians from this zone, Yakubu Dogara, Adamu Mu’azu, Bello Kirfi and Shehu Buba, who are currently senators for the zone, did not speak to the governor.

While the PDP won the Bauchi North and Bauchi Central senatorial seats, the senator-elect for the central district, Abdul Ningi, was also a political enemy of the governor. Mr. Ningi is an Atiku associate and controls the PDP structure in the area.

Political analysts therefore say that despite the PDP prevailing in the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, the gubernatorial election may follow a different direction due to the intractable conflict between the governor and the top political gladiators in the state.

In the 2019 election, Governor Mohammed got a margin of victory from Mr. Dogara’s base. The former Speaker has now endorsed the APC governorship candidate, Mr. Abubakar, for Saturday’s election. This is interesting because Mr. Dogara, who after the 2019 election returned to APC when the war with the new governor started, had supported Atiku in the February 25 election after again running away from APC through the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Mr. Tinubu and Kashim Shettima.

President Buhari, when he was in Bauchi for Mr. Tinubu’s presidential campaign rally, could not publicly endorse the APC governorship candidate because of a malfunctioning audio gadget at the event. The development was later interpreted as an act of sabotage by people in the party who opposed Mr. Abubakar’s candidacy. However, the president, in a special video broadcast, later endorsed the APC candidate and urged voters in the state to vote for him because he is an experienced military officer.

Governor Mohammed is aware of the challenges he faces and continues to fight them. He has successfully wooed the outgoing senator for Bauchi South, Lawal Gumau, who was defeated in the NNPP by the APC candidate. Mr. Gumau joined the governor’s team four days after losing his re-election bid. He was an APC senator who defected to the NNPP after failing to retain the APC senatorial ticket. He ended up coming third in the senatorial election as the NNPP candidate, polling only 3,739 votes against the 170,505 votes obtained by Shehu Buba, his opponent who had also defeated him in the APC primaries.

Mr. Gumau expressed his support for governor Muhammad and urged his supporters to vote for the governor in the gubernatorial election.

Outside the political side, the main challenge facing the governor in the state is the failure of his government to pay workers’ salaries regularly and pensions and gratuities to pensioners. This is one of the main reasons why the former APC governor, Mr. Abubakar, lost his re-election in 2019.

According to the APC spokesperson in Bauchi, Adamu Jalla, the people of the state have decided to vote for the APC governorship candidate.

“Because now, all the citizens of Bauchi State have suffered a lot during the four years of PDP administration. State civil servants’ salaries are low, pensions, pensioners’ allowances and other social amenities,” Jalla said.

Jalla said the development projects undertaken by the PDP administration of Governor Mohammed are not spread across the 20 local government areas of the state.

“They are not doing real projects anywhere in the country. All the projects they are implementing are in Bauchi metropolis, which shows the attitude of tribes and sections in other parts of the country,” added Jalla.

“The money belongs to the whole of Bauchi State, but all the contracts that this government does are given to outsiders. No indigene enjoys contracts or welfare. From top engineers to ordinary workers, they are all brought from outside Bauchi State.

“For example, working in the Government Building. This was done by outsiders, the renovation of the Banquet Hall at the Government House was not done by an indigenous company,” said Mr. Jalla.

Also, the APC accused the governor of failing to relieve parents of the burden of National Examination Council (NEC) registration fees.

“During his tenure, most of the students in boarding schools were deboarded and sent back to day school, which led to many young girls getting unwanted pregnancies, which ended their educational careers”, said the APC spokesperson.

Reacting to the allegation of non-payment of salaries regularly, the PDP chairman in the state, Kosher Akuyam, denied the claims.

“This is baseless, we pay our salaries every month. Bauchi State Government has no debt now, it is only March salaries that have not been paid, which have not been paid.

“Until February this year, we had no kobo debt. But we had a disruption due to digital issues, now we have no debt,” added Mr. Akuyam.

He also refuted allegations that the distribution of development projects by the state government was lopsided, arguing that the government carried out projects across the country and only selected contracting companies that could deliver standards.

“Let me tell you as a politician, if I want to give a contract, there are professional contractors, if we need standards, we have to give them. And local contractors who have capacity, we are still involved. And there are contractors who are inherited and used.

“Every contract through tender includes renovations in government houses. Any company can apply for a contract from anywhere in the country. They can be from Bayelsa, Kaduna or anywhere else if they are qualified, they cannot be denied a contract,” said Mr. Akuyam.

According to him, there are contracts intended for local contractors, such as the renovation of primary schools and hospitals that are always given to indigenous contractors.

Mr. Akuyam also denied the existence of divisions in the PDP in the state. He, however, said that those who felt dissatisfied with the main party last year were playing politics in Abuja, rather than in the country.

---

ALSO READ: Bauchi governor writes to Buhari, says APC gubernatorial candidate threatens peace

---

“Politics is played at the local or village level, not at the national level. Anyone playing Abuja politics is only a ceremonial politician, but not a PDP member at the ward level,” Mr. Akuyam said.

He said that after the party’s primary election in 2022, it will be a consultative committee that brings together all members and resolves the dispute.