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Sometimes one question gives every answer. Are we living through another 1996, or another 1991?
The Tories are in conflict and trailing in the polls with at least 18 months until the election, but some see parallels with John Major’s pre-election victory in 1992. The election was won against expectations due to his personal popularity. While the ‘Government’ had a very negative rating throughout 1991 and early 1992, it never went underwater, and when the elections were close, the rating affected the government more than the other way around.
The more optimistic Tories see a parallel here with Rishi Sunak, who also bashed his government fairly. But unlike Major, Sunak does not have an overall net positive rating, and his rating has fallen to the government. The ‘Government’ also has (even) worse ratings than before in 1992.
If we were in 1996, then I would tell you everything you need to know about the upcoming Tory election. Normally I would take a broad approach to this contest, focusing on seat demographics, candidate quality, and other factors. But sometimes the government is so unpopular that it doesn’t matter.
After John Major’s miracle in 1992, the Tories quickly broke up, falling behind in the pre-Christmas polls and never winning again. He has also failed to defend a by-election in eight attempts since 1997.
The depth of his struggle cannot be understated. The Tories saw double-digit swings against them every time, ranging from 11% to 35%. The second time is directly from 1St for 3rd. It doesn’t matter if they defend an urban battlefield or a rural heartland, or the size of their majority. The public just want to give the Tories a kicking, and do so at every opportunity.
There is some speculation as to whether the Tories, and Sunak in particular, can salvage some good news from the upcoming election. He is defending his majority, and it is hard to believe that he will actually lose seats like Selby and Ainsty which Labor would need a swing of around 18% to overturn. I’m becoming less skeptical about this as the Tory polls worsen and the mood of the mid-90s is evident in the country.
The 20% opinion poll leading the Labor Party seems unrealistic, but it can be considered in light of the recent elections and May’s local residents. Locals were not a success for Starmer, but a real disaster for the Tories. And in the election, even ignoring the stunning Lib Dem victory, Labor has seen a double digit swing in what was already a safe Labor seat and a 13% swing to get Wakefield when the national poll lead was still in the single digits. An 18% swing to win Selby and Ainsty may seem daunting, but in a national environment it is doable.
Punters have warmed to this view over the last few weeks, with Labor being clear favorites in Selby and Ainsty. I think they are right, and the odds again left (3/4 in UniBet) remain a slight value. Starmer may not be Blair, but Sunak is not Major and may be more important.
(UniBet odds valid from 10am Saturday 1st July)
Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has a bet on Labor to win Selby and Ainsty at 5/4. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts
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