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it is very difficult to see any result for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing many seats. Even if we take the polls for Sunak’s most favored party, R&W, on Monday, the Tories are trailing by 12%. In GE2019 blues has 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there is 12% CON-LAB.
My guess is that there will be more of a swing back to the Tories in the next 18 months but it is hard to see the party in a position to stay in power.
My calculation is that in order to stay in power, the Tories need to have a 5% GB national vote lead which seems far fetched.
So in this context a lot of big Tory names are going to be former MPs. It’s hard to predict Johnson’s Uxbridge Ruislip is still blue. My guess is that a safer seat will be found for him and he will continue as an MP. He will be criticized for not staying at Uxbridge but Johnson has a way of dealing with that.
Mike Smithson
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