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The details above from the latest Opinium poll look at what those who voted CON said in GE2019 today.
As you can see, the Tories hold just 39% of the general election with the next largest segment being “Won’t vote/Don’t Know”.
This is very different from polling noise which focuses only on those who intend to vote now.
My judgment is that this is not the big endorsement for LAB that Starmer’s party wants. Many of the No Will/DK segments will no doubt filter back to the Tories come the general election. That’s why I still think that the LAB majority bet is not a certainty that the probability of the bet is.
Mike Smithson
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