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The table shows all the GB Westminster vote polls published in the last three weeks and it can be seen that the Tory deficit remains in double figures. It has gotten a little closer in Deltapoll later but still above 10%.
As these numbers will shrink during the election campaign, it is worth noting that Labor will always need a national vote share of at least 7% to guarantee an overall majority.
My own view is that this may be quite strict and there is a real possibility that Starmer’s party will not have a majority.
Note that in GE2019 LAB won only 202 out of 650 seats and may need 110+ gains for overall majority taking SF members who did not take seats.
The big issue that continues to affect meh polls is that many CON GE2019 voters are still saying they don’t know.
Mike Smithson
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