The ICC wants Putin arrested. What happens now?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president over his invasion of Ukraine, but few in Moscow or outside expect Vladimir Putin to be arrested in handcuffs any time soon.

The warrants issued on Friday are related to Putin’s involvement in the deportation of thousands of children from Ukraine to Russia. Another was issued to Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the Russian commissioner for children’s rights.

News of the warrant brought cheers from Ukraine and jeers from Moscow. Russia is not among the 123 countries that have signed up to the ICC, making the pledge “null and void” within its borders, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

But if Putin is going to run in another country, they should arrest him, said Payam Akhavan, a senior fellow at Massey College in Toronto and a genocide adviser to ICC prosecutors. He was then sent to The Hague for trial.

It might sound like a long shot, but something strange is happening. The idea that former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic would face international justice – before a UN tribunal – for his first war crimes seemed unlikely, Akhavan said, but it eventually “happened.”

“People who are in power today may not be in power tomorrow,” Akhavan told CBC News.

So what does the warrant mean for the leader of the world’s largest country?

Who is part of the ICC?

Canada is one of the countries that has ratified the basic Rome Statute of the ICC. Many others have not, including key members of the UN Security Council – the US, China and Russia – and key G20 countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Turkey.

Most countries in Europe and South America have signed up, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and much of Africa.

What can the ICC do?

The ICC has jurisdiction over four types of crimes: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes of aggression.

However, with no armed body to enforce its warrants, the ICC has minimal powers to arrest people and must rely on member state security forces.

Since its launch in 2002, the court has issued arrest warrants for three sitting world leaders: Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi and now Putin. No one tried. (Gadhafi is dead and al-Bashir remains at large.)

Another Muscovite, who gave his name only as 20-year-old Daniil, scoffed at the warrant.

“Putin! No one will arrest him. Instead, he will arrest everyone,” he told Reuters.

What is the record of court proceedings?

With more than 900 staff members and an annual budget of nearly $250 million, 31 cases have been brought before the International Criminal Court.

The judges have issued 38 arrest warrants, according to the ICC website. Twenty-one resulted in the suspect being arrested by a member state and detained in a judicial detention center.

The court has issued 10 convictions and four acquittals.

Have you gained a lot of confidence?

Most of the people who have been tried, convicted and imprisoned by the courts are from Africa.

Dominic Ongwen, the former commander of the Lord’s Resistance Army, a rebel group in Uganda known for using child soldiers, was sentenced to 25 years for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The first person to be convicted by the ICC, Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, was sentenced to 14 years in prison for his role in commanding rebel forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo that committed atrocities.

Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi, a member of Ansar Dine, an Islamic militia in Mali, served seven years for the war crime of attacking religious and historical buildings in the city of Timbuktu.

In other cases, suspects remain at large including Joseph Kony, the leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army in Uganda and Russian government official Mikhail Mayramovich Mindzaev, who is wanted for war crimes against civilians in Georgia.

Saif Gadhafi, the son of the former Libyan leader, is also wanted by the ICC and is considered a fugitive.

What happens next?

While an arrest may be unlikely, the warrant will make diplomatic and business efforts more difficult for Putin and his allies, according to the former US ambassador to war crimes.

“It makes Putin a pariah,” said Stephen Rapp, who held the position during Barack Obama’s presidency. “If he travels, he will be arrested. This will not go away.”

Some hope that, by issuing the warrant, the ICC and other international bodies will pursue other, larger legal efforts — though they doubt anything will happen anytime soon.

“It is important for the international community to dig for the long term and send a clear message that they will not sweep these crimes under the carpet and that the perpetrators will be pursued and will be brought to justice,” Akhavan, a law professor, said.

“The important point to remember is that an arrest warrant is just the beginning.”