No one can predict the future, but when it comes to the future of work, we’ll trust the experts who are looking at workplace trends in the pandemic era.
Anthony Klotz, associate professor of organizational behavior at the University College of London, coined the term “Great Resignation” in May 2021 in an interview with Bloomberg.
“When there’s uncertainty, people tend to stay put, so there’s a pullback that hasn’t happened over the past year,” Klotz said at the time. That level of withdrawal is compounded by “many epiphanies related to the pandemic” about values, passions, and the need for work-life balance.
Suffice it to say, Klotz hit the nail on the head. Forty-seven million Americans are out of a job by 2021; 46.6 million quit last year. That’s a small drop, but Klotz says it’s expected to drop this year as the labor market improves.
In large part because of the threat of a recession and a wave of layoffs that have cost millions in the sector, the rate of layoffs has slowed so much that “it’s as if the pandemic never happened,” Klotz said. CNBC Create there, adding that they seem to be plateauing.
Pandemics always happen, but what doesn’t last is the pandemic-era belief of job hoppers that good new jobs will always be around. The optimism of workers who will find a new strong role has dropped precipitously, Klotz said, and workers have become much less likely to leave if they do not have something new lined up. “As more companies cut back on recruitment, job seekers will have fewer options, and quitting becomes harder to do.”
This may explain why many people who have joined the Great Retirement recently have had a harder time finding work than they expected. Although layoffs are out of fashion, employers will work overtime to attract and retain talented workers this year, Klotz predicted. This may bring benefits, increase pay, and possibly bend the mandate back to office.
“If you’re getting what you want from your current job, there’s less incentive to quit,” Klotz told CNBC. “We cannot discount the fact that millions of jobs are better off today than they were three years ago, thanks, in large part, to the policy changes that companies have made.”
Technically small
Now, that data doesn’t make Klotz rise. According to the latest JOLTS report, released Wednesday, US job vacancies rose to 11 million in December 2022: a five-month high. And nearly half of workers plan to ask for a raise this year—and say they’ll quit if they don’t get it. But you can’t argue with the experts, although Klotz admits to some caveats of his own.
Not every industrialist achieves total power, Klotz said. Sectors like health care, retail, and transportation are still reeling from two years of the Great Recession and continue to hire at a rapid clip to avoid losses.
In addition, other experts predict that even if the Great Resignation is relegated to the Great Resignation this year, the boss will not hold the upper hand for long.
“Beyond the near-term disruption of boom-and-bust economic cycles, there are very clear labor supply headwinds across the industrialized world,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor, told fortune last month. “Aging demographics and slow immigration mean the market pendulum will have to swing back to employees before long.”
“The Great Resignation, the quiet termination, and the record job opening rate prove that the war for talent is over and talent has won,” added Carin Van Vuuren, chief marketing officer at SaaS company Greenhouse. “Power will remain in the hands of candidates and they will continue to be selective about who they work for and where – this could be the first recession where we see job seekers win.”
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