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The election that shaped the modern poll
The biggest election shock of course since I became interested in politics was in 1992 when against all odds John Majors managed to retain his majority.
Many reasons were put forward at the time as to why the pollsters got it wrong and it was this election that led to the discussion of the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Those who support the Major’s party refused to admit to the polls. While all surveys were conducted face-to-face or over the phone,
This was the only general election when I was a candidate and I felt very close to what happened during the campaign and the result was not surprising.
A few days before the election there was a famous Kinnock rally in Sheffield which gave the impression of a victory celebration.
I have vivid memories of canvassing on the Tuesday before the vote when the mood at the door was very different. Voters are thinking about Kinnock and his support is gone.
It happened too late to take the polls. Since then some pollsters have tried to ensure that the last poll was the evening before.
Mike Smithson
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