The Battle for Bakhmut Is Over. What’s Next for Russia?

The battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine is now over. After 10 months of brutal artillery battles, advancing troops and thousands of Russian and Ukrainian casualties, Moscow’s formations took control of the industrial center, while Kyiv’s troops tried to put pressure on the outskirts of the city.

But what comes next for Russia, which says it aims to capture all of the eastern Donbas region, is unclear. Earlier in the war, Moscow had hoped to use the capture of Bakhmut as a springboard to advance further west – aspirationally to the large cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. That goal seems out of reach now.

Russian forces appear to be using, military analysts said, after suffering extensive losses to secure Bakhmut. And overall, the forces of President Vladimir V. Putin have shown little ability to take other areas elsewhere, have usually been relegated to small-scale attacks in a smattering of cities in the east of the country.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has been training new formations, armed and equipped with the West, and is expected to launch a wider counterattack somewhere along its roughly 600-mile front line.

This has Russia in More than a defensive crouch, its forces are stretched, while they build fortifications and prepare for the next phase of the war.

“We’re going to see more localized tactical strikes,” Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, said of Russian forces. “But Russia will focus mainly on defense and preparing for a Ukrainian counterattack.”

Russian forces have spent much of the winter and spring digging in and preparing Ukraine for an offensive, although some units continue to attack in areas such as Kreminna to the north of Bakhmut and Avdiivka to the south. These attacks left the Russians low, and even destroyed population centers in their path while reducing their own ranks.

In the south, which some military analysts predict will be the focus of the Ukrainian attack, Russian forces have dug an intricate network of primary and secondary trench lines and minefields to thwart any Ukrainian advance, according to satellite photos and analysts.

If Ukraine is able to recapture territory, analysts say, it could give Russia a bigger air force as Ukrainian forces advance, outside of air defense range.

Further to the southwest, Ukraine now holds the southern port city of Kherson after it was recaptured in November. But with the Dnipro River as a natural border, Russian artillery units could attack the city from the east with little risk of being overrun by Ukrainian ground forces, given the difficulty of crossing the wide waterway.

In the north, Ukrainian-backed proxy units have penetrated the Russian border in recent days, seizing small areas in what is seen as a propaganda move to tie up Russian forces and embarrass the Kremlin after capturing Bakhmut.

But the battle for Bakhmut comes at a significant cost to Russia and Ukraine and they will be considering what to do next. Both sides made a greater investment in men and material to capture and hold the relatively small and now ruined city, which had a pre-war population of over 70,000.

Such was the nature of the 15-month war: Both militaries, still stuck in Soviet-style tactics, continued to rely heavily on artillery, tanks and limited forces to seize and control the ground.

“The war for Bakhmut is less about territory and more about the impact on the two forces and what it reveals about them,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va.

Russian forces were defeated on three fronts last year – around Kyiv, in the northern Kharkiv region and in Kherson. Moscow is nursing a tired and casualty formation after a brutal urban battle in Bakhmut. Ukraine also suffered casualties, but was digging in better and higher ground outside Bakhmut.

In recent days, Ukrainian forces have made small gains north and south of Bakhmut, putting their forces in a better position to stop the Russian advance. The head of Wagner’s paramilitary forces, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, whose fighters were primarily responsible for the capture of Bakhmut, had promised to withdraw them from the city and turn their defenses over to the Russian uniformed ranks, risking an unorganized turnover of troops.

The Wagner “was not designed for defensive operations,” Mr. Lee said.

Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner group has proven to be one of Ukraine’s most formidable adversaries and it is unclear how his departure from the battlefield will affect Ukraine’s ability to put pressure on Bakhmut and others.

Military analysts, Western intelligence agencies and Ukrainian officials have disputed the strategic importance of the Bakhmut campaign for months. Moscow could invest its resources elsewhere on the front line instead of wasting lives and ammunition for a few miles of land, he said. Kyiv could withdraw earlier, saving battalions, brigades and supplies for future attacks.

The decision of both sides to stand and fight would have a lasting effect on future maneuvers.

The battle for Bakhmut was unique in that Wagner’s group relied on formations of prison inmates to attack Ukrainian trenches, to overcome defenses and expose Ukrainian firing positions. Russia’s ability to fill its ranks, often with untrained troops, has been one of its advantages because it has forced Ukraine to risk better-trained units to stop raw troops that Russia considers a cost.

But Ukraine fought back, despite losing the city and taking heavy casualties. They took advantage of open fields and tree lines on the outskirts, and used Western-supplied precision artillery such as HIMARS rocket launchers and 155-mm howitzers to wound and kill Russian troops at a distance.

Now, Moscow must decide whether to advance west of Bakhmut. A few miles away lies the city of Chasiv Yar, but Ukraine can retreat to the high ground between them, where it can fire at the advancing Russian troops. More likely, Russia will focus on defending Bakhmut and its approaches.

The aftershocks of the battle for Bakhmut are not fully understood, in terms of the number of casualties on both sides or how much equipment or ammunition was lost or damaged. Western estimates earlier this year put Russian casualties at around 200,000 wounded and dead since the invasion, and Ukraine is thought to be the same. The war for Bakhmut has resulted in thousands of other casualties.

“This chapter will be closed, even if the war continues in the fields outside the city, but there is a lot about the willingness of Ukrainians to fight, although the soldiers may wonder whether the war for Bakhmut is driven by political considerations rather than military,” Mr. Kofman. said.