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Thai voters head to the polls on Sunday in a hotly contested election that will determine whether Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in a coup in 2014, is defeated by his rivals.
Thai political observers call the election the most important in their lifetime.
Polls show that many voters want change, backing an opposition party that has promised to restore democratic governance in Thailand and roll back some of the authoritarian policies imposed by Mr Prayuth.
There is a broad sentiment that Mr. Prayuth has done nothing to improve the economy after nine years in power. A crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020 has also alienated many voters.
“If we get a government that is more or less the same as it has been for years, there will be a lot of unhappiness, a lot of grievances in Thailand,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, referring to the country’s economic stagnation.
Here’s what you need to know about the election.
Who is the front runner?
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, of the populist Pheu Thai Party, is the current prime ministerial candidate, according to public opinion polls. The 36-year-old – known in Thailand as “Ung Ing” – is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, and much of her appeal is based on her family name.
Mr Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and is still remembered by many Thais for starting a $1 universal health care program and distributing subsidies to farmers. Since 2001, established populist political parties, including Pheu Thai, have consistently won the most votes in every election.
But Mr Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon, remains unpopular with conservatives and the wealthy military. The army overthrew him in a coup in 2006, and Mr Thaksin fled the country. (Her sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, met the same fate eight years later, after becoming prime minister.) Mr. Thaksin, who mostly lives in Dubai, was sentenced in absentia to 12 years for corruption and abuse of power.
Up Ms. Paetongtarn has raised questions about whether he will bring his father back to Thailand, and many Thais are now bracing for the instability that defined the previous two Shinawatra administrations.
Ms Paetongtarn, who gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 before immediately returning to campaigning, also faces stiff competition from Pita Limjaroenrat, a candidate from the progressive Move Forward Party. In a recent poll, Mr. Pita emerged as the main choice for prime minister.
How is the selection process?
The prime minister is not chosen through popular vote, but by the 500-member DPR and 250-member military-appointed Senate.
In 2019, the Senate unanimously supported Mr. Prayuth and is likely to align with the military proxy candidate again. If voted as a bloc, opposition politicians must muster a large majority in the lower house – at least 376 votes – to lead the country.
Already, Senator Wanchai Sornsiri said that he and a group of senators “definitely will not vote” Ms. Paetongtarn is the prime minister. But it remains unclear who the military will choose.
Voting can be divided.
One of the big surprises in this election is Mr. Prayuth’s separation from his comrade-in-arms, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Mr. Prayuth joined the United Thai Nation Party, which was founded solely to put him as a candidate in the election. Mr. Prawit spent the night at Palang Pracharath, the former party of Mr. Prayuth.
Pheu Thai, the populist party of the former prime minister’s daughter, has been gripped by speculation that it may join forces to form a coalition with Mr Prawit’s party. He is considered one of Thailand’s most powerful politicians and was the army chief before Mr Thaksin.
Pheu Thai has consistently denied the rumours, but many Thai skeptics say they will vote for the progressive Move Forward Party to prevent the outcome.
What is the main problem?
The Move Forward party has proposed to change a strict law that prohibits defaming, insulting or threatening the king and other members of the royal family in Thailand after authorities charged more than 200 people with violating the law during mass pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020. . . .
The law under the law, known as Article 112, imposes a minimum sentence of three years and a maximum sentence of 15. It is the only crime in Thailand that carries a minimum prison sentence.
Bread-and-butter issues are also at the forefront of voters’ minds. Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, and the country reported the slowest economic growth last year among other major Southeast Asian economies.
That’s why almost every political party relies on populist policies, such as cash donations and subsidies, to attract voters.
How can the military come into play?
If history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, will not relinquish its power easily.
In addition to planning a dozen coups in a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to appoint the country’s prime minister.
Even if Mr. Prayuth lost the popular vote, he could still hold the top job, leading a minority government.
“While everything is well planned, I cannot be optimistic about changes after this election,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court dissolved the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after it unexpectedly came third in the 2019 election. Two of Mr Thaksin’s previous political parties were also dissolved by the military leadership. (Conservative officials have also threatened to disband the Move Forward Party in this election.)
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said the party should be wary of the junta’s “stealth authoritarianism” after the election. “This will be a big challenge for the new government,” he said. “Every step will be monitored, will be scrutinized.”
Mukta Suhartono contribute reports.
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