A Tesla vehicle is displayed at its sales and service center in Vista, California, June 3, 2022.
Mike Blake Reuters
Share from Tesla down 10% Tuesday morning, a day after the electric car maker reported fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022.
The shipment is the closest sales estimate Tesla has disclosed. The company reported 405,278 total deliveries for the quarter and 1.31 million total deliveries for the year. The number is a record for the automaker led by Elon Musk and grew by 40% in delivery year over year, but they fell shy of analysts’ expectations.
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According to a consensus of analyst estimates compiled by FactSet, as of December 31, 2022, Wall Street expects Tesla to report about 427,000 deliveries for the final quarter of the year. Estimates updated in December, and included in the FactSet consensus, ranged from 409,000 to 433,000.
These more recent estimates are in line with the company’s consensus compiled by Tesla Vice President of Investor Relations Martin Viecha.
Some Wall Street analysts believe that Tesla’s delivery will cause problems for the electric vehicle maker, but others see a buying opportunity for the company in 2023.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who recently rated Tesla as his top pick for 2023, maintained his outperform rating and said he would remain a buyer of the stock ahead of the company’s Jan. 25 earnings report.
“Q4 shipments missed consensus but beat estimates,” he said in a note on Tuesday. “Importantly, production increases of ~20% q/q which we expect to continue into 2023 as the gigafactories in Berlin and Austin continue to ramp.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they viewed the delivery report as an “additional negative,” and saw Tesla as a company that is “well positioned for long-term growth.” Goldman reiterated the buy rating on the stock in a note on Friday and said that making vehicles more affordable in a challenging macroeconomic environment will be “the main driver of growth.”
“We believe the main debate from here will be about whether vehicle deliveries can accelerate again, margins and the Tesla brand,” the analyst said.
Tesla shares are experiencing a year-long selloff in 2022, prompting CEO Musk to tell employees in late December not to be “too distracted by the stock market madness.”
Musk blamed the drop in Tesla’s stock price on rising interest rates. But critics point to Twitter’s $44 billion takeover as a bigger reason for the slide.
Morgan Stanley analysts said they think the weakness of the company’s stock price is a “window of opportunity to buy.”
“Between a worsening macro backdrop, record defaults, and increasing competition, there are obstacles that all auto companies will have to deal with next year,” he said in a note on Tuesday. “However, against this backdrop, we believe TSLA has the potential to expand its lead in the EV race, as it leverages its cost and scale advantages to further distance itself from the competition.”
CNBC’s Lora Kolodny and Michael Bloom contributed to this report.