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The immediate reaction to this latest poll from Ipsos is that it could be more difficult for the incumbent PM to solve this question than the Leader of the Opposition. Simply put, exes have to make decisions that are often controversial.
If Starmer is at Number 10 for the next eight months, he will start to struggle with the move when he has to make the tough calls. In any case I have always considered this form of polling to be a better guide to election results than standard voting intention polls.
According to the Times, the Tories have a new policy plan they think will resonate with voters – scrapping IHT. The problem for Sunak is that Labor will portray this as another step that will help them get better. It will go down well with Waitrose shoppers but perhaps negatively with Aldi ones.
The Tories need to make progress on the cost of living crisis before the election and I wonder if Sunak is the right person for the moment. It wouldn’t surprise him if he was thrown out before polling day.
Mike Smithson
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