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Fighting has erupted in the Sudanese capital Khartoum and at other sites across the country as rival military factions battle for control, raising the risk of a national civil war.
Tensions have been simmering for months between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which together overthrew the civilian government in an October 2021 coup.
The friction comes with an internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civil parties. The final deal will be signed in April, on the fourth anniversary of the ouster of autocrat Omar al-Bashir in a popular uprising.
Both the army and the RSF were required to hand over power under the plan and two issues proved particularly controversial: one was the timetable for the RSF to be integrated into the regular armed forces, the second was when the army was officially placed under civilian control. .
When fighting broke out on April 15, both sides blamed the other for instigating the violence. The army accused the RSF of illegal mobilization in the previous days and the RSF, while moving to a key strategic site in Khartoum, said the army had tried to seize full power in a plot with Bashir’s loyalists.
Who are the main players in the field?
The protagonists in the power struggle are General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the army and leader of Sudan’s governing council since 2019, and his representative in the council, RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti.
As the new transition plan is being developed, Hemedti is closer to the civilian party of the coalition, Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), which shared power with the military between Bashir’s ouster and the 2021 coup.
Diplomats and analysts say this is part of Hemedti’s strategy to transform himself into a statesman. Both the FFC and Hemedti, who became wealthy through gold mining and other ventures, insisted on avoiding Bashir’s loyalists and Islamic-leaning veterans who had regained positions after the coup and had deep roots in the army.
Along with some pro-military rebel factions that benefited from the 2020 peace deal, Bashir’s loyalists oppose the deal for a new transition.
What is at stake?
The popular uprising has raised hopes that Sudan and its population of 46 million people can emerge from decades of autocracy, internal conflict and economic isolation under Bashir.
The conflict could not only undermine these hopes, but destabilize the region bordering the Sahel, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
It can also be a competition for influence in the region between Russia and the United States, and between regional powers that have courted different actors in Sudan.
What is the role of international powers?
Western powers including the United States have swung behind the transition to democratic elections after Bashir’s overthrow. He suspended financial support after the coup, then supported plans for a new transition and civilian government.
WATCH | Powerful paramilitary groups fighting the Sudanese army:
At least 59 civilians have been killed in Sudan after two days of fighting. The Sudanese army and a powerful paramilitary group known as the RSF are seeking supremacy, and hopes of democracy, or even stability, are on hold as people flee for protection.
Energy-rich powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also sought to shape events in Sudan, seeing a transition away from Bashir’s rule as a way to restore Islamic influence and promote stability in the region.
The Gulf countries have sought to invest in sectors including agriculture, where Sudan has great potential, and ports on Sudan’s Red Sea coast.
Russia has sought to build a naval base in the Red Sea, while several UAE companies have signed up to invest, with one UAE consortium signing an initial deal to build and operate a port and another UAE-based airline agreeing with its Sudanese partner. to create a new low-cost carrier based in Khartoum.
Burhan and Hemedti both developed close ties with Saudi Arabia after sending troops to participate in Saudi-led operations in Yemen. Hemedti has forged ties with other foreign powers including the UAE and Russia.
Egypt, itself ruled by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi who ousted the previous Islamist, has deep ties with Burhan and the army, and has recently promoted a parallel track to political negotiations through parties that have strong links to the army and the former government of Bashir.
What could happen next?
International parties have called for a ceasefire and a return to dialogue, but there has been no sign of compromise from the warring factions.
The army considers the RSF a rebel force and demands its disbandment, while Hemedti calls Burhan a criminal and blames him for visiting destruction on the country.
Although the Sudanese army has superior resources including air power and the RSF has expanded to a force of approximately 100,000 people deployed in Khartoum and neighboring cities as well as in other regions, causing ongoing conflicts on top of the long-standing economy. crises and massive humanitarian needs.
The RSF has also been able to draw support and tribal ties in the western region of Darfur, where it emerged as a militia that fought alongside government forces to crush rebels in a brutal war that escalated after 2003.
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