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Weather & Going (according to MoonRabbit) the week will be rainy and windy, if you’re going, windproof waterproofs are essential. Put some heatpads in your pocket as well. Of course and the famous mountain is always a test of stamina, the track rain increases the jeopardy, but it will rain actually make for many soft – just not business as usual on the turf all season after the last heat of the heat wave, what falls just absorbs so quickly. With the thirsty water table despite the forecast of rain, I think we should expect fast racing – remind ourselves of the size and quality of all this field, is it out to play in the race really? For example, in the Champion Hurdle, if the pace is good throughout, Vauban can turnover State Man – anticipating another favorite lost because it is good rather than soft.
Notebook MoonRabbit. I have kept over thirty pages of notes from this winter’s races. If you don’t know this festival, think of the Horse Olympics – the competitors have been on a long road to the top this week, especially in one of the 4 prestigious races – 3.30 each day.
Cheltenham Gold Cup superstar (Fri) Galopin Des Champs with extra finishing gear in today’s competition – will amble in the background looking uninterested, but will win. Hewick interests me if he likes the hurdles again, he is light racing this season and showed the class he deserves at times for this big crown. Champion Hurdle (Sel) State Man will win. Vauban e / w if the soil is good. Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wed) Edwardstone is the best 2m chaser, through bruised legs, and will not go wrong here in Queen Mother with Funambule Sivola else at a fantastic e/w price. Obstacle Stayers’ (Thur) I have an emotional attachment to Marie’s Rock who won the Mares obstacle for me at the festival last year, her form this season is good when aimed at winning another festival. But in which race? I think the Stayers are the best chance, the Tuesdays Mares Hurdle (4.10) is just so loaded with talent that I fear him – but at the time of writing, the owner is not happy he stayed 3 miles on what he thought would be too soft. . ?
In other Races. Il Etait Temps horses in shape for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle versus Marine Nationale e/w (1.30 Tue). El Fabiolo takes form Arkle v Jonbon (2.10 Tue) e/w chance for Bainbridge. Love Envoi for me this year in the Mares Hurdle (4.10 Tue). Good land for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 Wed). Geri Colombe to welcome handicap chase newcomer Thyme Hill e/w (2.10 Wed). Lossiemouth (1.30 Fri). Highway One O Two e/w (2.10 Fri). Blue Lord will beat Shiskin in Ryan Air (2.50 Thur). Delta Work for cross country (16:10 Wed) won many expected in short odds – more interesting Delta Work in this form for the April Grand National, I have been at 20-1 before shortening.
I tipped 6 winners out of 16 in PB last year’s fest, which set the benchmark – in the coming days based on more intel I will scrunch my thoughts down to only 16 tips, showing this as 4 sent to PB every morning of the Festival.
Stodge’s Day 1 Forecast.
Supreme Novices Hurdle The roar as the runners are sent down the road in the open race is one of the best sounds in British sport. 14 to post and last year’s Champion Bumper winner FACILE VEGA is the favourite. MARINE NATIONAL, which is unbeaten in four, has not run since December. IL ETAIT TEMPS took advantage of poor FACILE VEGA to win well at Leopardstown and should eliminate INTHEPOCKET. Former Derby favorite HIGH DEFINITION looks anything but a natural jumper. The best of England seems to be the champion Tolworth TAHMURAS, I’m in the 10s each way, but has enjoyed a strong pace in Leopardstown IL ETAIT TEMPS can be a follow up. Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase This looks set to be an epic match between Irish Raider EL FABIOLO and English challenger JONBON. Both sides are unbeaten in three chases after meeting each other in the last hurdle race, which JONBON won by a neck.
I just think galloping tracks favor JONBON, while EL FABIOLO is better suited for faster tracks. If you are looking for value in every direction, go to HOLLOW GAMES. Champion Hurdle Will this make or break CONSTITUTION HILL? 24-length demolition of JONBON in Supreme last year marks him as exceptional, they do not give every horse 173 rating. STATE MAN won the Irish version and has done nothing wrong this season – another year he will be favourite, but will he experience something extraordinary? VAUBAN won the triumph last year, but it is incredibly hard for 5yr follow up in this race, and in defeat behind STATE MAN last time less than stellar. If you want someone outside, I am happy to move it also in Wincanton.
Ten Mares Hurdle move to quality updates featuring two previous Champion Hurdle winners in HONEYSUCKLE and EPATANTE. I am more convinced by the latter through this trip – HONEYSUCKLE beaten in Grace Hatton for me is not enough to get home. MARIE’S ROCK won this last year, then won the Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown and won the Relkeel at Christmas. BRANDY LOVE had a great pipe opener the other day. I think MARIE’S ROCK will follow. The Grade 2 National Hunt Chase for amateur riders looks to favor GALLIARD DU MESNIL who was third in both the Brown Advisory and the Irish National last year.
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Selection (Day 1) 1.30: TAHMURAS (each way, 10/1 taken. 2.10: JONBON. 3.30: AKU SUKA NGOVER (each way, 20s if possible). 4.10: MARIE’S ROCK
Good Luck to you all.
Stodge & MoonRabbit
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