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Above is the detailed data from this week’s YouGov poll which I have shown to highlight the big problem for Labor – although the Tory share is down only a relatively small proportion of GE2019 CON voters have switched to Starmer’s party.
The top table is limited to those who stated their voting intentions, while the bottom one also includes the responses of those sampled without mentioning the party they will return to. Johnson’s party in 2019 says it will do so next. Of the balance, only 11% went to LAB with 10% to Reform and 5% to LD.
My guess is that a significant proportion of the GE2019 Tories who have not declared their intention to vote will be Sunak’s party. I also think a fair slab of 10% now said Reform will do the same.
The details are almost identical to other polls. The big message for Starmer is that he is not converting ex-CON voters.
Mike Smithson
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