Despite fears that Eskom will drop the country to stage eight load-shedding from the current stage six, outgoing chief executive Andre de Ruyter has given assurances that the situation does not warrant an increase in power outages.
During a media briefing on Monday, De Ruyter said that the utility is reviewing the documentation and schedule that governs the stages of load shedding, “forming a contingency if the country reaches stage eight”.
“We have a contingency plan in case there are more losses in generation capacity. I can give the state a guarantee that we are doing everything we can to ensure that we will not experience a situation that exceeds,” he said.
De Ruyter said the demand forecast for Monday evening was 27 282MW. With a capacity shortfall of 5 834MW, he said, the sixth phase is necessary.
Eskom’s head of generation, Thomas Conradie, told reporters that if the rain subsides now, the situation at the Lethabo power plant will be normal.
“There’s a pile of coal in Lethabo. It’s raining a lot,” said Conradie.
In a statement on Sunday, the state-owned power utility announced its sixth phase of load shedding, saying it had lost 59% of its generation capacity due to heavy rains that prevented the delivery of coal from the New Vaal mine to Lethabo. It said the three power plant units that are running are at risk of shutting down if the coal supply constraints are not resolved.
Eskom reported breakdowns totaling 21 243MW of power, close to half of its installed capacity of 48 000MW, which is the amount of electricity it can produce. He said over 3 500MW is also out of service for maintenance, which means that, in total, more than half of the capacity is offline. This has raised fears that the country will reach stage eight of load-shedding and shut down immediately.
“Eskom’s fleet is running out of time and unfortunately you can’t catch it when it runs out,” said energy analyst Clyde Mallinson. M&G. “We are moving from load shedding prevention to load shedding. The possibility of stage eight is now very visible.
De Ruyter said Eskom has solved the problem of diesel supply, allowing it to run open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) if necessary.
“The OCGTs can provide up to 2 200MW of generation capacity for the power grid, offsetting the two stages of open-shedding,” he said, adding that the utility has guaranteed backing from the treasury regarding funding for diesel supplies.
“Treasury guarantees the banks that Eskom borrows money from, and stands behind the state-owned power utility’s loans,” he said.
Experts have previously said that a higher level of load shedding, beyond stage eight, will only be experienced during the winter months when the demand on the grid is higher than the rest of the year.
However, De Ruyter said Eskom will ensure that approximately 1 628MW of generation capacity – currently offline for repairs – is returned to the system in the future. He said the utility was working hard to restore generating capacity and hoped to reduce the load in phase six by the end of the week.
“Stage six load shedding will continue until the peak on Wednesday evening, and may drop to stage four on Thursday morning,” he said, adding that Eskom has about 12 318MW offline due to full load loss and another 5 993MW in partial load. loss. Coal restrictions and boiler tube leaks at the Lethabo power station have left another 2 100 MW unavailable.
But the load-shedding itself means a total collapse of the grid is unlikely, as previously explained by energy expert David Walwyn. Eskom uses rotational power cuts to maintain a balance between demand and generated power. Only if this balance is not maintained, there will be a collapse of the box.
Eskom maintains that this will not happen.
But the utility warns that with a large number of damages, it is possible that the stages of reducing the load may increase “in the short term”.
It highlighted the problems that forced the implementation of six load stages, including generating units each in Arnot, Hendrina, Lethabo and Majuba, as well as two units in Camden suffered damage and were repaired offline since Sunday afternoon.
“Furthermore, two power generating units at the Lethabo power station have been shut down due to coal constraints as the New Vaal mine that supplies the station has not been able to deliver the coal it expected for the past week due to heavy rains. The three units that are running are operating at minimum capacity and are at risk of shutdown if coal supply constraints cannot be resolved,” Eskom said.
Stage eight loadshedding means there could be 12 to 14 hours a day without power and there are fears that this will lead to economic collapse and widespread social upheaval, including mass protests or civil disobedience. It will also affect the pumping and treatment of water, which has been affected by cutting the rolling power.
Walwyn believes there are contingencies in place to prevent a total blackout, but should the inevitable happen, Mail & Guardians previously it has been reported that the black-start facility is in hand. These facilities can restore energy to power plants and help the grid recover from outages.
With the country’s power surges, Durban on Monday experienced a power outage with many areas affected. In an update posted on its Facebook page, the eThekwini city council said it was aware of a trip at the high-voltage substation in Klaarwater, which affected many areas of the city.