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Recent revelations about the SNP’s bookkeeping and motorcycle purchases have led to headlines about a sudden meltdown, but this is somewhat misleading. While the polls remain stable until the end of 2022, the position looks increasingly precarious.
The problem with the SNP is exactly the same as the Tories. In 2019 (and 2021, for the SNP) he won a big victory with a coalition of voters who clearly focused on key issues. For the Tories it is Brexit, for the SNP it is independence. But once that issue goes away, the fact that your voter base is diverse becomes a difficult issue. Try to appeal to one side of the coalition and you alienate the other side.
Like the Tories, the SNP reacted by trying to raise key issues. Rishi Sunak references Keir Starmer’s support for Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit referendum twice in every PMQ. Nicola Sturgeon has made more aggressive moves towards unilateral independence over time – culminating in a failed Supreme Court case trying to hold a new referendum without Westminster’s approval.
After a while, your constituents wonder what else you have to offer, especially as other issues become more important (there’s a cost-of-living crisis, I’ve been told). Since the ruling Supreme Court SNP has begun to unravel, with the leadership election showing just how deep the cracks in the coalition are. Kate Forbes’ views on abortion, gay marriage and other issues are a stark illustration that, apart from wanting independence, even senior SNP figures don’t all agree.
The result was a steady decline in SNP support, ahead of the crisis headlines triggered by the MSP’s arrest. The decline may continue after the title is gone, because there is no new reason to support the party in an era when independence is not an option.
As Labor get closer and closer in the polls, it should be possible, rather than the SNP falling into second place at the next election. And the FPTP is not happy with the parties in Scotland, where the winners often sweep the place. Of course, winners tend to win the popular vote by a fair margin, but winners have won big even with less than 40% of the vote and a sub-10% lead. The SNP also faces a unionist tactical vote, which becomes easier if Labor is strong in the state/region (remove is an option).
| The election | Vote Share winner | The Winner’s Seat | 2n.d Place Vote Share | 2n.d Seat Location |
| 2019 | 45% – SNP | 48 | 25% – Tories | 6 |
| 2017 | 37% – SNP | 35 | 28.5% – Tories | 13 |
| 2015 | 50% – SNP | 56 | 24% – Labor force | 1 |
| 2010 | 42% – Labor force | 41 | 20% – SNP* | 6 |
| 2005 | 39.5% – Labor force | 41 | 22.5% – Lib Dems | 11 |
| 2001 | 44% – Labor force | 56 | 20% – SNP* | 5 |
| 1997 | 45.5% – Labor force | 56 | 22% – SNP* | 6 |
| 1992 | 39% – Labor force | 49 | 25.5% – Tories | 11 |
| 1987 | 42.5% – Labor force | 50 | 24% – Tories | 10 |
| 1983 | 35% – Labor force | 41 | 28.5% – Tories | 21 |
| 1979 | 41.5% – Labor force | 44 | 31.5% – Tories | 22 |
*(In this election, the Lib Dems got 2n.d most seats while the SNP got 2n.d most votes. Total SNP seats shown)
How bad can it get? That’s the key question, usually focused on how big a hill Labor must climb in England to win a majority in 2024. But you can bet directly on the fortunes of the SNP, and I have value. William Hill, Skybet, and Ladbrokes will all offer 3/1 that the SNP fall below 20 seats. 16/1 is available if they fall below 10 seats (William Hill or Ladbrokes). Skybet also has 4/6 that the Liberal Democrats will be beaten (likely by a slight resurgent) in the next election.
I suspect everything is a modest price, but I have wagered on 20 seats (at average odds of 5/1, before they changed). It’s not my expectation, but it’s more likely than the odds suggest.
Pip Moss
Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts
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