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This weekend, the Russian military conducted live tank exercises with 1,500 soldiers in the region and beyond. Russian Federal Security Service, FSB, intercepted a Ukrainian naval ship in the Sea of Azov which he claimed to have carried out “provocation”. And Putin, the Kremlin, and the state-run media are pumping out more rhetoric.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters this week that Putin has not made a decision on whether he will launch another large-scale invasion of Ukraine. But U.S. intelligence and military analysts warn that they have too many Russian forces if they have to decide.
“There is no indication that Russia is moving troops away from Ukraine, but there is evidence that Russia is continuing to send more ground troops near the border,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and PhD candidate at King’s College London War. Department of Studies, told BuzzFeed News. “I expect this means that Russia will retain a better military posture near Ukraine for the foreseeable future … even if it does not escalate in Ukraine.”
Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst focused on Russia and Belarus, analyzed the Maxar Technologies image for BuzzFeed News. He said that Russia has created a new regiment in the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division and that group may have added a lot of troops and equipment in Soloti seen in satellite images between September 7 and December 5. President Joe Biden’s phone call with Putin.
“The regiment is based on BMP-3Ms [Russian infantry fighting vehicles] which was withdrawn from the 22nd Central Reserve and Maintenance Tank Base in Buy in mid-November,” he said, referring to the city northwest of Moscow from where he came from. “The same facility delivered BMP-3M to the new motorized rifle regiment of the Kaliningrad Motor Rifle Division 18. In total, between mid-November and early December, 200 new vehicles appeared in Soloti, although not all of them were from Buy.
Maxar Senior Director Stephen Wood told BuzzFeed News that some of the new additions to the vehicles seen on December 5. The image may represent a military unit returning after participation in a large Russian ground force exercise held in the fall.
In Opuk, Muzyka said, it is more difficult to understand what is shown in the satellite image taken on November 27. This could be done to confuse the scale of Russian forces there.
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