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Water levels in reservoirs that supply drinking water in southern Ukraine have reached a 30-year high, raising the possibility of flooding in the region and signaling a lack of regulation. The sudden increase in the level in the Kakhovka reservoir was seen in altimetry data – which uses satellites to measure height – published on Friday by Theia, a French earth data provider.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has not recorded high water levels at dams since at least 1992, when the service began publishing data. Russian forces control the dam and a nearby power plant, which is essential for regulating water levels in the reservoir.
A New York Times analysis of satellite imagery over the past few months also shows that water levels have risen dramatically, and are now covering the sand dunes that line the waterway. In recent days, the reservoir has reached a more significant level, it appears that there is a peak above the dam.
The development is a dramatic change, just months after water levels in the reservoir hit a historic low. At the time, Ukrainian officials expressed concern about the lack of water for drinking, agriculture and cooling of the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. By the end of February, the water level was almost two meters below the usual average.
latest videos and satellite imagery from late last year showed that at least three gates controlling the flow of water through the dam were opened – apparently by Russian forces under control of the Kakhovka power plant. That, in turn, allows water to rush through at an alarming rate over the winter, despite relatively little water entering the reservoir from upstream.
It is not clear exactly how the water level has risen so much since then. But David Helms, a former US Air Force and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist who researches the dam, said that the Russian forces seem to have kept several gates open to control the flow of winter snowmelt and spring rains. Likening the effect to a leaking bucket, Mr. Helms said a lot of water is entering the reservoir.
“What the river is doing is dumping a lot of water,” Mr Helms said. “And this exceeds the discharge rate.”
The dam, located on the front line, has been a point of tension throughout the war. In August, a Ukrainian artillery strike hit a bridge along the dam, although the dam itself suffered no damage. Then, in November, Russian forces deliberately destroyed a section of road directly above the dam gate, carrying out a dangerous explosion near the vital dam infrastructure.
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