Russia blamed deadly strike on troops using phones. Here’s why it might be more about bad planning

Russia’s explanation that dozens of soldiers were killed in an attack earlier this week as a result of forces divulging their positions through the use of mobile phones has been questioned by some observers who believe bad military planning was the main cause.

The use of mobile phones by Russian soldiers may have played a role – it was a significant military issue for Russia during the war – but according to experts, it is also an indication of a lack of training and discipline among the troops.

“This is an endemic problem for the Russian military today because its forces are poorly trained and undisciplined, so they do not implement good operational security measures,” said Karolina Hird, Russia analyst in the Russia/Ukraine Portfolio at the Institute for the Study of War.

The attack that killed 89 Russian service members happened just after midnight on New Year’s Day — at a school converted into a military base in Makiivka, in the Moscow-controlled Donetsk region.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Russian defense ministry said that “it has become clear that the main reason” for the attack was due to “large-scale switching and use – contrary to the ban – by personnel of mobile phones in the range of enemy weapons. .”

According to the statement, this is a factor that “allows the enemy to track and determine the coordinates of the location of soldiers for missile attacks.”

The concentration of forces shows a lack of training, planning

Hird agreed that the use of cell phones by Russian soldiers may have played a role in the attack, as it appeared to be timed after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s New Year’s address, when many soldiers were on their phones, sending text messages. the family wishes you a Happy New Year.

“Three hundred, 400 cell phone signals just flashing in one place,” he said. “This is the element, which can guide the attack.”

However, he noted that an adequately trained professional army would not have a concentration of personnel close to the front line in non-tactical positions within range of enemy artillery.

“The use of cell phones, yes there is a role. However, it is relatively immaterial because the fact that the use of cell phones can kind of provide the Ukrainians with an edge in conducting attacks is more indicative of military failures and command failures.”

Jake Harrington, an intelligence expert at the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said cellphone use has potential, but he’s not sure it’s the main cause of the attacks.

In this case, he said that someone saw the consolidation of personnel and reported back to the Ukrainian military, noting that “significant leadership failure” allowed many troops to gather in one place to be close to the front line. in a building containing ammunition.

Technology offers new tracking opportunities

However, Harrington said that during the war, Russian soldiers used personal cell phones that could be tracked by Ukrainians.

Ukrainians “still own the infrastructure that the phone is riding on. They can listen to the phone as well,” he said, noting that it is a big problem for Russia.

“The fact that they showed the risk to their lives that they took by using that phone in a place where they could be tracked and still using it, I think, is just a sign of bad power. bad training, bad morale, bad leadership.”

Hird said there have been several instances where Russian soldiers posted footage on social media that was easy to find, which then went viral, noting a recent incident in which Russian soldiers posted photos in front of recognizable locations in Oleshky, a town in the Kherson region.

“And of course, the place was hit.”

John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the Citizen Lab, which studies communications technology and spyware at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, said cell phones have been the Achilles heel of the modern military and have given the military a foothold since the army began. use them.

“Nothing has changed except the fact that now there are many, many ways that information can be transmitted.”

There was the “old school stuff” of signal triangulation, he said, but noted that now there are also advertisements and apps people use that contain location data.

“That’s the search behavior, that’s what it sends,” Scott-Railton said. “There are many different ways that cell phones can be tracked.”

Cell phones are a big problem for the modern military

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that despite the potential risks, Russians continue to use cell phones because they are needed for their operations.

He said that in many cases, Russian military communications were not working, troops were not trained to use or did not have enough radios and had to rely on mobile phones to communicate on the battlefield.

Hardie noted the idea that the use of cell phones by soldiers has become a major problem for every modern military.

“You see the number of cell phone recordings that come out of the Ukrainian side, for example. You know, this is a concern,” he said, noting that Ukraine sent orders and guidance to troops on the use of cell phones along with precautions to be taken. “But you’re never going to be 100 percent about it.”

Still, he says there are big operational security issues for Western militaries. “And the US service, for example, is trying to destroy this house.”

According to Harrington, the US Department of Defense and intelligence agencies are looking into a problem called “signature management” – finding ways to ensure that troops do not emit signals that can be tracked by the enemy.

As far as they can manage, Hardie said that the most disciplined troops often come.

“And I think as we’ve seen from Russia, it’s not a strong suit.”