Russia and China are becoming ever closer and the West should worry

China and Russia take center stage this week as both countries look to deepen relations as the chasm with the West, in geopolitics and economics as well as military, appears to be deepening, according to analysts.

The three-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow this week, which began on Monday, was welcomed by the presidents of China and Russia as the result of solid and cooperative relations between the two leaders and their countries, and was carried out after a determined drive. over the last decade to strengthen diplomatic, defense and trade relations.

Before the visit, President Vladimir Putin said in an article that “unlike some countries that claim hegemony and bring discord to global harmony, Russia and China are literally and figuratively building bridges” while their Chinese counterparts reciprocated, telling AFP he was “confident the visit will generate and give new momentum to the development of healthy and stable China-Russia relations.”

Xi’s visit to Moscow is a political coup for Russia because it comes at a time when Russia has few high-powered friends on the international stage, and has shown no signs of attacking Ukraine.

Russian forces have made no real progress despite a year of fighting, and a largely isolated Moscow continues to work under international sanctions. To add insult to injury, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, holding him responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine during the war.

However, China and Russia have long shared similar geopolitical goals, such as the desire to see what they call a “multi-polar world” and rein in NATO’s military power, which unites them. And perhaps the most important point of view of all is the long-standing distrust of the West.

A meeting of recent events – from the war in Ukraine to the Western restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology to China and, lately, the nuclear submarine agreement between the US, the UK and Australia that irked Beijing – only served to bring the countries even closer together, according to analysts.

“If you look at the trajectory of China-Russia relations over the last decade, the bilateral relations between the two countries have really developed,” Alicja Bachulska, a policy member at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told CNBC, adding that the process of developing relations has begun. in the 1990s.

“It’s really about certain strategic interests, which are very close to Beijing and Moscow at the moment,” he added. “For Russia and China, the main interest is to destroy the US-led international order, which is their main goal, both long-term and short-term.”

For China and Russia, the war in Ukraine is a challenge to the US-led world order and a way to undermine it, analysts noted.

China has consistently supported Russia’s war in Ukraine, but has also refused to condemn the invasion. Instead, he lashed out at Moscow by criticizing the US and NATO for what he saw as “fueling the flames” in Ukraine. It has also sought to carve a niche for itself as a peacemaker, calling both sides to agree to a ceasefire and come to the negotiating table to negotiate.

Behind the scenes, the West is concerned that Beijing could supply Russia with weapons that could cause it to win in Ukraine, as US intelligence suggested last month. Ukraine’s Western allies have signaled that any move would be a red line and that if Beijing crosses it, there will be “consequences” in the form of sanctions against China.

Beijing has strongly denied that it plans to supply Russia with any military equipment. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Monday reiterated his earlier comments that the West was supplying arms to Ukraine, not China, telling reporters that “the US side should stop fanning the flames and fanning the flames … a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, not another way.

China has denied plans to help Moscow militarily, but analysts say Beijing is concerned about the war in Ukraine, as China views Russia’s failure in Ukraine as a threat, risking a potentially seismic political fallout in Russia. which could damage Beijing.

“The worst case scenario for Beijing right now is the complete failure of Russia in this war,” ECFR’s Bachulska said.

“If they start to think that Russia can fail – and in the worst nightmare scenario there is. [could be then] a pro-democratic government in Moscow – for China, this would be a very threatening scenario,” he noted, seen as “a direct threat to Beijing, and the stability of the CCP. [Chinese Communist Party].”

This fear, he said, could sway China as it considers giving Putin help in Ukraine. “They will be able to offer more support if they know that the balance of power on the battlefield is against Russia,” Bachulska said.

Of course, if China helps Russia with weapons or military technology, it will be done in a secret way, analysts including Bachulska and those at the Institute of War Studies have noted, such as using Belarus or other countries.

“Xi is likely to plan to discuss sanctions evasion plans with Putin and Russian officials to support the sale and supply of Chinese equipment to Russia,” ISW said in an analysis ahead of the Xi-Putin summit, noting that it had previously been assessed recently. meeting between the presidents of Belarus and China, an agreement may have been signed that “facilitates the evasion of Russian sanctions by channeling Chinese products through Belarus.”

ISW said Xi and Putin “are likely to discuss sanctions evasion plans and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.” CNBC reached out to China’s Foreign Ministry for comment and has yet to receive a response.

While possible military aid to China is something the West should be wary of, the depth and breadth of China’s loyalty to Moscow appears to know no bounds, with Beijing unwilling to impose major sanctions on its economy just to help Russia.

On the other hand, analysts note that China, like Russia, has an interest in seeing the US and the West more weakened, geopolitically and diplomatically – for example, if China can become a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine – and on the other hand. economic level, if both countries can establish closer trade relations. It comes as the US and Europe challenge China’s economic power, most recently with the introduction of sweeping export control rules to limit China’s ability to access advanced computing chips.

“Export controls on China’s high technology – which reflects a targeted content policy – brings Xi closer to Putin in his worldview and orientation,” Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC, adding: “I think it will be reflected in Xi’s statement when he … visited Putin in Moscow, and it will become a geopolitical issue,” Bremmer said.

While Russia may offer China a convenient trade and diplomatic partnership as other routes to Western markets appear increasingly vulnerable, analysts note that relations between China and Russia are unbalanced.

“China doesn’t need Russia,” Christopher Granville, director of global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC. “Russia is a very small economy compared to China except for some specific things, such as hydrocarbon exports and some aspects of the military industry,” he said.

“What I will say is that the US pressure on China, especially in the current trade war and technology war, is a clear zero-sum project by the US government to prevent China from reaching the main technological frontier, especially semiconductors,” he noted.

“It seems to me that it is the result of a zero-sum campaign of the US government to pull back China, to stop it taking ahead and staying behind, it is suddenly the relationship with Russia becomes more valuable for China.”