Rishi Sunak is ready to face down Conservative critics and push ahead with reforms to Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading rules, with allies saying the majority of Tory MPs just want to get the issue resolved.
The British prime minister spoke to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on Friday in a fresh bid to hammer out a deal, with speculation mounting that it could be announced soon.
EU officials said the call was “positive”, while UK officials said a “positive breakthrough” had been secured. Officials close to the talks said Sunak could even seal an agreement over the weekend or on Monday.
Downing Street refused to comment on the timing, but one of Sunak’s key allies said: “We know that almost 300 MPs just want to get this done – enough is enough.”
Downing Street watched anxiously as about 60 Tory MPs, out of a total of 355, expressed concerns about the deal being struck with Brussels.
Von der Leyen is scheduled to visit Britain on Saturday for protocol discussions. A separate meeting with King Charles has also been scheduled, Sky News reported.
However, the visit was cancelled, and government sources said there was no suggestion that the king would be dragged into political territory.
Much depends on whether the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland responds positively, or at least outright rejects, the Sunak deal. Party managers estimate at least 30 potential Tory rebels could back the deal with the DUP cover.
Sunak wants to secure the final tweaks to the agreement text in an attempt to win over the DUP and persuade to return to executive power sharing at Stormont.
Downing Street said talks with the EU had been “intensive over the past week and progress has been good with some positive breakthroughs”.
Tory MPs have been held in three rows to attend parliament, although party sources insist this is standard procedure on a busy legislative day in parliament. Cabinet ministers could be briefed at the end of the week, according to Tory officials.
Sunak will not have to call a House of Commons vote on reforms to the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol, as part of former prime minister Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit deal, but may decide to hold off.
In any event, they want Tory MPs to show their strength in supporting a deal, which would improve the situation in Northern Ireland and improve Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Sunak and von der Leyen discussed the political implications of implementing the protocol, which would cut border checks, increase democratic oversight and limit the role of the European Court of Justice.
A “green lane” with minimal checks will be set up in Irish Sea ports for goods traveling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, if they intend to stay in the area. A “red line” will be set up for goods traveling to the Republic of Ireland and the single market.
Control of issues including VAT and state aid will be carried out from London, not Brussels. A joint committee will oversee new arrangements for managing disputes.
Since Sunak presented the outline deal to the DUP last week, party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has made new demands. He said the agreement should include changes to the treaty, not just political declarations.
Donaldson also wants Northern Ireland companies to be allowed to produce goods to UK standards, rather than under EU rules, for export to the UK market. Under the protocol, the region is part of the EU’s single market for goods.
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, said that the priority of the British government is to win over the DUP, although Donaldson’s party has said that it will take time to examine the legal details of the deal.
“When, hopefully, we can resolve the issue, then I hope the DUP will understand that we have resolved the issue,” he told Times Radio’s Cleverly. “Until we have resolved these issues, we will not sign the agreement.”
Among the Tory MPs who could cause problems for Sunak is Johnson, who wants to press ahead with legislation that would scrap the protocol.
Northern Ireland politicians are expected to attend a rally in Omagh on Saturday, where a senior police officer was shot and critically injured on Wednesday night. The attack, which is suspected to be by dissident republicans, is not believed to be related to the protocol, but has shocked the region and brought back memories of the three-decade-long conflict.
One DUP insider said: “If we get it wrong, we will send the next generation into further division and I doubt, if we get it wrong, whether the Northern Ireland Assembly will ever be resurrected.”