I therefore echo the position of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu which has been considered on this matter, and in line with the resolution of the State Council; return the old money and let it open side-by-side the new for some time, as the new ones are being printed. Not all of the old currency withdrawn has been destroyed. Deferral or reduction of e-banking fees of all types. This will be a great incentive. Get the bank on your side…
I have written about the efficacy of ‘following the money’ by changing the currency in order to give organized criminals in Nigeria – kidnappers, bandits, drug dealers, and of course some very corrupt civil servants and politicians – some hard times, months. before the Buhari administration finally came up with the idea in October 2022. When the project was announced, I was very happy, even though alarm bells were ringing that it might be close to the election. Despite the political connotations, I have confidence that the person I am supporting (Bola Tinubu) is the most important politician who has invested in people for decades and that is why no matter what, he will succeed.
As it has turned out, the implementation has shown that there is a lot of psychology that was underestimated / mismanaged and perhaps some black swans appeared in terms of our people’s reaction to the policy. There is a behavior that is characteristic of us as Nigerians, which is visible and screwing up policies as they are now. I mean, how the responsible project manager has estimated the cash demand first (spray), and how will this defeat the real demand for legitimate transactions? How much weight should be given to this? How can the planners estimate the power of the targeted politicians, go to the bank managers and, as suspected, make a deal that ensures that the initial billions released by the central bank just disappear like a puff of smoke? Still, the project was completed – we can say that it failed, because not only the Supreme Court had to step in, but also the State Council, which included every state governor. This is largely a reaction to the stage of implementation causing great distress to the poorest Nigerians. This was definitely not part of the plan.
The plan would certainly not allow poor people to queue for hours at ATMs. And the plan is not all about implementing a strict cashless policy. Cashless-ness in monetary policy is a relative phenomenon. There is nothing in this world without money. The central bank may plan to increase electronic transactions by a certain percentage. However, due to the unforeseen shortage of money, people are flocking to the banking halls to establish electronic banking and so on. It is a case of e-banking or die. But there are still millions of Nigerians who will never be able to use gadgets and codes and keyboards. They are at the bottom of our economic ladder. They are the best hit; and very unfair. They are farmers who have to sell cheap what they have spent months growing and tending, harvesting and transporting, just to get the money they are used to. He doesn’t have a bank account anywhere. They are micro-retailers in forgotten parts of Nigeria who have not had sales for days because of this policy. Even a beggar who survives on a small alms must starve. It is a very stressful time for many people. Policies that punish this category of people should not be whitewashed. What have these people done to deserve this punishment because the rest of us are having fun in our air-conditioned offices, fiddling with our apps?
Apart from those who did not support the policy at first, but later became the most ardent supporters when people were queuing and suffering, some even took the government to court, and some fringe political parties vowed to boycott the elections, some barbs must go. the way that the politician who has allegedly gone to special policies Dim the chance of Bola Tinubu. The central bank should not be used as a political contraceptive – to cancel other people’s ambitions.
I go around and collect first hand data myself, not depending on what others report. Every six hours I drove through the same banks and also opened some that I have an account in. It was bedlam for the most part. People gathered around ATMs that disbursed little, then dried up. In parts of Nigeria, ballistic and miscreant people have started destroying banks. Once you reach that level, check to see if the policy has expired. In all that, our people are still playing politics. I remember wondering why members of the smaller political parties didn’t support the policy in the first place, after all, they probably had less access to cash-for-votes. A larger party I can understand; arguments against policy from a political angle are difficult to make. Because if you push too hard, people will accuse you of trying to bribe voters on election day. What I think most people don’t think is that there will be a shortage of cash. This shortage has not only stressed many Nigerians, thus making the task of the ruling party and its candidates more difficult, but some analysts now say that the stress is actually depressing millions of voters, so that they need less money to sell their votes.
Apart from those who did not support the policy at first, but later became the most ardent supporters when people were queuing and suffering, some even took the government to court, and some fringe political parties vowed to boycott the elections, some barbs must go. the way that the politician who has allegedly gone to special policies Dim the chance of Bola Tinubu. The central bank should not be used as a political contraceptive – to cancel other people’s ambitions. This is egregious. Some barbs should also be sent the way of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which may have underestimated the capabilities of the Nigerian Security Printing and Minting Company, and relied on what has now been shown to be false data.
Many of my modern, well-educated friends swear by data. There is an oft-repeated saying, ‘In God I Trust, for everything else I need data’. However, from the nadir of knowledge in econometrics, we are taught that many times, data does not tell us anything. Nigerian data is particularly fraught with inconsistencies, political machinations, inefficiencies, historical errors, and what have you. Rely on that completely at your own peril. I understand that the CBN relies heavily on money estimates, individual bank balances, average withdrawals at ATMs and what have you. He didn’t count on people going around collecting hundreds of ATM cards and eventually emptying most of the machines to do arbitrage business. Something happened in the interregnum that could be considered an ‘unknown’ in the CBN strategy session. Perhaps the bank was able to withdraw earlier, because it was allegedly licked by politicians and their friends, but because of the political influence of the president, who is working on his legacy. It is possible that the idea could have been implemented months or years earlier by the CBN as an independent policy targeted at cleaning up and expanding the monetary space, without political interference.
… to increase awareness and education. CBN executives who went to the country discovered that there was a huge communication gap from the beginning. The policy is good and can still be helped. There seems to be less pressure on the FX side, demands for small bribes seem to be diminishing, more people are embracing electronic channels, but the pain and shock to the most vulnerable should not be ignored or underestimated.
And what should we do about our banking superstructure and architecture? I met someone who worked at GTBank, who did not know that the bank was a super elite bank in the early 90s. I wonder why that bank today will be led by ‘Britico’, Segun Agbaje, but it is worse than the open market in terms of ambience, if you get to the building. It used to be that every hall of GTBanking had a grand piano, with a professional pianist ringing out the classics back in the day when they dreamed. Then Soludo came with the consolidation, telling the bank to forget the dream and do all the business. At the time, banks were selling recharge cards and ‘kpofkpof.’ In the banking hall – anything that brings profit. Later, banks started a strategy where ‘retail’ was the way forward. I never understood how having a salary account of a ministry, with millions of low paid workers crowding your office, would be a great vision. I left the sector. Currently, even the deployment of ATMs and electronic sources has not solved the problem. This is very crowded. I think we need microfinance and community banks – with a clear mandate to expand savings and also lend to initiatives that add value to raw materials. They should house this small account.
I therefore echo the position of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu which has been considered on this matter, and in line with the resolution of the State Council; return the old money and let it open side-by-side the new for some time, as the new ones are being printed. Not all of the old currency withdrawn has been destroyed. Deferral or reduction of e-banking fees of all types. This will be a great incentive. Get the banks on your side – no bank MD is seen moving around their branches, even in Lagos, to make sure it is done. Also, a draft on FINTECHs and any entity that can help mitigate these snafus. Make sure Mint doesn’t bother you. Don’t let yourself be fooled. And lastly, increase awareness and education. CBN executives who went to the country discovered that there was a huge communication gap from the beginning. The policy is good and can still be helped. There seems to be less pressure on the FX side, demands for small bribes seem to be diminishing, more people are embracing electronic channels, but the pain and shock to the most vulnerable should not be ignored or underestimated.
‘Tope Fasua, an economist, author, blogger, entrepreneur, and presidential candidate of the Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), can be reached through topsyfash@yahoo.com.
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