PT State of the Race: APC, PDP flex muscles as campaigns enter final month

The main candidates in the presidential race have ramped up their campaigns since we entered an election year. However, the images emerging from the rally in Nigeria seem to invalidate some of the assumptions made about the race.

Since campaigning resumed in January, Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has held rallies in Adamawa, Yobe, Kwara and Jigawa; while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) main opposition has been in Kogi, Ekiti, Ogun and Oyo states. Peter Obi has held his own rallies in Delta, Osun, Kaduna, Niger and Plateau states just as Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) has addressed his supporters in Plateau, Bauchi, Kaduna and Nasarawa states.

Attendance at public meetings, especially in APC and PDP candidates, is generally impressive and tends to reflect the two-party structure established across the country. It also shows that both parties have huge support among Nigerians, despite the issues surrounding their tickets.

In the preview of this race, some analysts have flashed back to the 1979 election that almost went to a runoff. Remember that in the last election 43 years ago, the five candidates won comfortably in their home regions. Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) ended up winning as he won the southern minority states of Rivers and Cross River which had no indigenous candidates in the polls.

The observation that the four main candidates in this election also come from different zones of the country and seem popular in their own homes is one of the factors behind the projection that this election could be a runoff as each candidate can sweep the polls. in his home zone.

However, the turnouts in the rallies that Atiku has held so far in the southern states show that his party has a large support base in the state and shows that supporters value loyalty to the party rather than the same ethnic affinity with the main opponent. party presidential candidate. It also helps Atiku that the PDP now has two governors sitting in Mr. Tinubu’s home zone.

However, the same can be said of Mr. Tinubu. His rally so far in the northern zone has also been a huge spectacle and a great kinetic spirit. Atiku and Mr. Kwankwaso have been projected to end APC’s dominance in the northern region where the ruling party currently runs 15 of the 19 state governments. After the party’s rally in Kaduna and Katsina, some Atiku campaign officials even boasted that they have inherited the voters of President Muhammadu Buhari in the region, especially in the North-west zone of the presidency. The electorate has given Mr. Buhari in the region in the five presidential elections he has held between 2003 and 2019. But now that he is retiring, the electorate will be up for grabs. Pictures from the rally show that Mr. Tinubu is still considering voting for Buhari.

APC has at least shown the capacity to get people to campaign grounds in the North, just like the PDP has in the South. This is great. We assume that Atiku will face punishment from the Southern electorate for disturbing the principle of PDP rotation which should hand over the party’s presidential flag to the southern bidder. Anger in the region over development has been exacerbated by the dissident group of five (G5) party governors, led by Rivers’ Nyesom Wike. Members of the group continue to oppose and condemn the party and its presidential candidates in public forums. He also refused to be part of the campaign or support in his country. However, Atiku was well received by party members at every campaign ground in the South.

On his part, Mr. Tinubu faced backlash for the same-faith ticket that arose from the choice of Kashim Shettima, a senator and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate. The choice drew condemnation from Christian groups across the country. It will only be confirmed in the poll whether the anger has dissipated and if not, to what extent it will hurt him. However, the rallies and other public engagements have drawn participants from the right of faith should give Mr. Tinubu a reason for optimism.

READ ALSO: State of the Race: Kaduna gaffe adds to Atiku’s woes

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If this election is not decided on the first ballot, it may not be because each of the top four candidates oppose the other, votes in the front zone. The structure of the APC and the PDP, at least, seems strong enough to attract candidates who have more than a quarter of the votes in more than each of the 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory, the second condition for the election. Among those with the most votes will be elected on February 25.

One other assumption is that this is the rise of the four horses. At this point, only candidates from the two established parties seem to have a visible path to victory. The campaign will show Messrs. Obi and Kwankwaso, both seasoned politicians, the value of party structure. The two former governors are almost independent candidates because their parties do not enjoy popularity beyond the aura surrounding the candidates.

Mr. Obi’s bid has garnered unprecedented support from younger Nigerians. But apart from the first week of the campaign when they staged a series of apparently spontaneous “millions of people” marches in several cities across the country, Mr Obi’s youths and other supporters have not turned up in impressive numbers at rallies. He also failed to attract prominent politicians to his side, even though doing so would defy his vow to destroy the country’s existing political structure, which he described as corrupt and blamed for the country’s woes. And while the two main rivals have enjoyed a warm reception in their perceived strongholds, they have not seemed to attract much attention in their own zones.

Mr. Kwankwaso’s campaign has also so far lacked luster and seems to be losing steam even before it was called off. Outside the catchment state of Kano, people did not take the offer seriously.

There are still 33 days before the election, so the coming weeks will shed more light on the outcome of the election.

Tinubu, Atiku accused of trading

Last week, Mr. Tinubu and Atiku took the verbal fisticuffs beyond the campaign stop podium when they demanded the arrest and disqualification of each other from the presidential race over corruption allegations.

Mr. Tinubu’s campaign team struck the first blow when it called on security agencies to crack down on the so-called #AtikuGate scandal.

The scandal arose from a video clip made by Michael Achimugu, who described himself as Atiku’s former aide. The voice in the video, which is called Atiku, is heard saying that, as vice president between 1999 and 2007, Atiku and then President Olusegun Obasanjo operated illegal “Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV)” accounts to save kickbacks from government contracts for their personal use. benefits.

In response, Atiku and the PDP chose to throw their own barbs, describing Mr. Tinubu as a convict who should not be allowed in the presidential race, adding that the alleged $460,000 drug forfeiture is evidence of crime.

On Tuesday, after the 72-hour ultimatum he gave the agency, the spokesperson of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo, filed a suit against Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), seeking the arrest of Atiku over the scandal. He joined the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Offenses Related Commission (ICPC) and the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) in the suit.

PDP canine

The PDP on Friday finally used the stick against tribal chiefs in three states accused of anti-party activities. According to a statement by its spokesman, Debo Ologunagba, the party suspended former Enugu State governor, Chimaroke Nnamani, son of former Ekiti State governor Ayo Fayose and Mr. Fayose’s former spokesperson, over the alleged offence. The party also dissolved the state executive committee in Ekiti State, which was controlled by Mr. Fayose’s allies.

The former governor of Ekiti with the G5 governor or the Integrity Group who has had an open confrontation with the national leadership of the party and Atiku. Mr. Fayose did not attend Atiku’s rally in the state and is believed to be leading for Mr. Tinubu of the APC instead. His son, Oluwajomiloju, is the party’s candidate in the House of Representatives elections. Mr. Nnamani is also a PDP senatorial candidate in Enugu but has also declared his support for Mr. Tinubu.

The PDP’s sanction against the member shows that its patience with the G5 has run out. But that doesn’t seem to stop Mr. Wike. However, he has dared the party to extend the punishment to himself and other governors in the group. Governor Rivers also described the suspension of the member as illegal and warned that it would be challenged in court.

Speaking at the PDP Campaign Council flag ceremony in Bori, Khana Local Government Area on Saturday, Mr. Wike said: “Let me also use this opportunity to say to Iyorchia Ayu and his team, the dissolved Ekiti State Exco will not help you in any way. Suspending people will not help you in any way. The battle lines have been fully drawn. As I speak to you, we will do everything legally possible to challenge any decision that we know is illegal.

“So don’t think you can threaten people by saying, then people have been hanged. Rubbish! Complete rubbish. We are above the level where you think you can threaten anyone, scare anyone with whatever illegal decision you have made. So, we are waiting for you to announce yourself and other friends. As I said, if someone says that you will not sleep, they will also sleep? Ayu will sleep? Will his friends sleep? So don’t worry, we have the capacity to pay it back We have the capacity to tell you when it’s enough.

The crisis in the party has become one of the defining issues of this presidential election. This is not the first time the PDP has contested elections as a divided force. In 2014, seven governors of the state defected to the then newly formed APC in anger over the renomination of President Goodluck Jonathan who is now the party’s candidate for the 2015 presidential election.

But this time, Mr. Wike and his four governors refused to leave the party or submit to their authority.