If you’re hoping for less drama in your political life this year, think again. This was the year before the election. This is the time for political parties to build material to be used in the election campaign in 2024. But this pre-election year is likely to produce even more drama than the pre-election year.
Besides the lead-up to the polls, this year has also been fraught with several important issues and disputes that need to be resolved. All this has different fortunes for various political actors and will increase the merits of their actions, which will depend on the assessment of electoral losses, stabilization and growth prospects. It will be a roller-coaster year for all the major parties but even more so for the ruling party, which seems unclear on how to tackle some of the most pressing public policy issues.
Let’s start with the last point. Load-shedding has become a consistent irritant. Sometimes it’s more infuriating than unemployment because of the denial of simple pleasures such as watching sports on television while drinking a cold beer. It seems our energy supply will never return to normal.
Eskom has just lost its 10th chief executive — André de Ruyter who will leave the utility in March — in 10 years. The problems are said to be diverse and complex, ranging from infrastructure damage, sabotage and theft to lack of funds for maintenance and new equipment.
You may have some exaggerated problems. Whatever the real issue, it is clear that Eskom cannot be turned around without making unpopular decisions, and it will take longer to resolve than expected.
It is a company that really wants to collect its debts, so it is difficult not to turn off the electricity that does not want to participate in the debt. And the breakdown of the old power plant caused disruptions. For a party with a bad electoral form, such as the ANC, these are measures that Eskom would prefer to avoid.
He blamed the election defeat in Soweto on Eskom turning off the electricity to make poor payments. After De Ruyter, who said he did not know, was forced to resign, the government is now in a low place. They can’t use a new chief executive just to have that person build a household in the same way De Ruyter did.
The new chief executive should know better and work miracles. Whether De Ruyter’s dismissal was effectively a show of political bravado, on the eve of the ANC’s elective conference in December, remains to be seen. The circus around Eskom is unlikely to stop.
Similar dithering is seen in SAA. It does not appear that the government will find a buyer for the 51% stake on offer any time soon. The consortium touted as a possible buyer, Takatso, appears to be unable to settle. It seems that one of the reasons for the collapse of the two is the lack of capital. Why the consortium took the lead, when they didn’t have enough capital to begin with, is a mystery.
Without a new partner to inject capital into SAA, we will be back to the bailout issue. Middle class voters won’t be happy – or maybe the ANC has given up. But the working class and the poor are also dissatisfied with the performance of the ruling party.
The segment of the South African population that the ANC can please is rapidly shrinking. It faces fierce competition from both flanks, left and right. The fertile electoral ground for centre-right ActionSA continues to grow. It will pay attention to the indecisiveness and mismanagement of public entities.
It doesn’t take much searching or producing evidence to make the case. The experience of the people is enough testimony to the poor performance and blunders of the government.
Economic Freedom Fighter Julius Malema is in a similarly advantageous position. It is a natural magnet for disaffected voters who feel that the establishment no longer cares. Despite the favorable socioeconomic conditions, the party’s growth prospects are uncertain. Its leaders – Malema and Floyd Shivambu – were involved in the looting of VBS Mutual Bank.
Some officials from the bank have been tried and can provide all the information in exchange for a lighter sentence. Newspaper reports have been funneling money from the bank into Malema and Shivambu’s accounts and showing how they splurged on all the luxury goods and clothes. This may be the year they charge to explain how to secure the funds.
Our legal system will, therefore, remain central to our political life. The constitutional court ruling on the rigor, or lack thereof, of Judge Sandile Ngcobo’s section 85 report on Phala Phala, may be one of the first lightning rods this year. Expect the court to come in vitriolic attacks. And they will continue into the election year, because more people will come to court to explain the fraud and will lose the nomination for next year’s parliament.
The Zondo Commission on state capture has provided a long list of these individuals, some of whom have recently been elected ANC officials and national executive committees. They include Malusi Gigaba, Nomvula Mokonyane and David Mahlobo.
The adoption of the step-aside rule is likely to make people even more determined to resist prosecution. A court appearance will disqualify him from consideration for public office. For individuals who depend solely on party deployment for their livelihood, disqualification from public office is confinement to a miserable existence. The bleak prospect will add to the edge of fighting again.
Mokonyane has lobbo the first salvo in the party’s disciplinary committee, intimating that they are being abused for certain individual victims. He obviously thought he had no case to answer. If he is asked to answer, it is not because there is a legitimate question about his actions, but in an effort to victimize him.
He is not the only one who thinks that unethical behavior is good. More than half of the delegates at the ANC’s recent conference thought so. That is why he is the deputy secretary general. With an endorsement like that, it was inconceivable that he could defend himself.
Although the ANC will continue to face turmoil, this year has given the party its first genuine chance to repair its image. Most party officials and national leaders are behind Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform movement. He will get support and the party will send a clear message.
Fikile Mbalula, the party’s newly minted “enforcer”, will ensure compliance through his new role as secretary general. The toughest test to try to renew will be how to deal with Gwede Mantashe. The Zondo Commission found something unexpected when Bosasa installed a security system in his house.
This is the same company that treats Mokonyane differently. Mantashe said it was just a gift that should not surprise anyone and has gone to court to overturn Zondo’s findings. If the court agrees with the commission, Mantashe will be prosecuted, which will oblige the ANC to act. How the party deals with the incident, especially now that he has become more valuable to Ramaphosa, will strengthen or weaken his efforts at renewal.
Don’t expect less votes this year. The country is far from reaching a moment of peace, and may never come. And it’s not something to despair. People need to get satisfaction from the racket.
Republicans are beyond bickering about what is right or wrong. There is unanimity about what constitutes general leadership and ideal leadership. Now the disturbance should be over the extent of the punishment for the individual malfeasant. This sounds good.
Dr Klaus Kotzé is a senior researcher at the Inclusive Society Institute.