PM’s former adviser says there’s no indication Canada was invited to join AUKUS defence pact

Canada was left out of the trilateral defense and security pact known as AUKUS – and a new report by a respected American think-tank says Ottawa must address its apparent indifference to the deal or risk being left behind by its allies.

The analysis report, published online Tuesday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was authored by Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The report pulls no punches.

“The glacial pace during which Canada appears to be adapting to the reality of modern power competition has now gone too far, with consequences for Ottawa’s reputation among its allies and its ability to protect Canada’s territory, sovereignty, and contribute to global peace and stability,” said the report, which investigate why Canada was left out of AUKUS.

“The simple answer is that Ottawa was not invited.”

Several defense and diplomatic sources said Canada was not invited to join before the pact was formally announced by the United States, Britain and Australia in September 2021.

CBC News did not name the source of the confidential information because it is not authorized to speak publicly.

Rigby said he saw no indication Canada would be invited to join the arrangement that became AUKUS just months before it was announced.

“There was no indication when I was national security and intelligence adviser” that there was a deal, said Rigby, whose tenure as Trudeau’s national security and intelligence adviser ends in June 2021. (He fully retires from public service in September 2021.)

Rigby said that while working with Trudeau, he had “regular discussions” with Canada’s allies in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership – Canada, the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand – and the idea of ​​AUKUS membership never came up.

“I have regular discussions with my counterparts in the United States, in England, in Australia. We talk about the threat environment,” he said. “We talked about how we, as a Five Eyes partnership, need to do more in response to external threats, including from China, including in the Indo-Pacific region.

Canada not seen as ‘significant player’

“But it’s about really coming together and focusing on submarine capabilities or broader defense, technological cooperation, that didn’t come up on my watch.”

He said that Canada was not invited to participate in AUKUS in the weeks after the departure of the government, this “says a lot about the way Canada is perceived by its allies at the moment … as an important player on the international stage and especially in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull told CBC News that he understood Canada was not invited because it had long refused to accept nuclear ships.

“The initiative for AUKUS came about because the Australian government at the time was led by Mr. [Scott] Morrison, wants to break the contract with France and wants to continue the nuclear propulsion of the navy,” said Turnbull, referring to his country’s previous plans to buy conventional submarines from France. The plan was canceled to manage AUKUS.

“He started discussions with the UK and … and then found his way to Washington,” Turnbull added.

The AUKUS pact has two main components or “pillars”: the acquisition of American and British nuclear submarine technology by Australia, and the transfer of military technology and intelligence.

Turnbull said Canada does not operate or build nuclear submarines, or is interested in building a nuclear fleet, so it is not part of the dialogue.

“I can understand why Canadians are really confused as to why they’re not being brought into the recycling,” he said, pointing out that Canada has a lot of experience with nuclear energy technology. “Canada has substantial and extensive nuclear experience in the operation of nuclear civilian nuclear power stations. Australia does not.”

‘It caught us unaware’

Turnbull’s assessment agrees with former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson’s perception of events.

“You don’t know, though [political] balm is, well, we have a relationship we like with the United States, we don’t really need it,” said Robertson, now vice-president of the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs, an Ottawa-based think-tank that occasionally hosts contractor-sponsored events defense.

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies says Canada will be put off by the cost of acquiring and maintaining a nuclear fleet through AUKUS.

“The apparent indifference of Canada to AUKUS seems to come from a combination of sticker-shock and an inadequate understanding of the benefits to be derived from the agreement,” said the report, which noted that the submarine part of the deal could cost Australia between $268 billion and $368 billion Australian ( $179 billion and $245 billion US) over a 30-year period.

At an event Monday at National Defense headquarters in Ottawa, Defense Minister Anita Anand was asked whether Canada had been notified or invited to join AUKUS. He avoided answering questions.

WATCH: Defense Minister Anita Anand on Canada and AUKUS

“As I said, we are very keen to continue working with our allies, including Australia, the United States and the UK, on ​​our capabilities in advanced technology, in innovation in AI and quantum technology,” Anand said.

Canada has signaled it wants to increase cooperation with allies in artificial intelligence and other high technologies unrelated to the nuclear program.

Robertson said he doubted Canada’s allies would be interested in seeing it at the table for the technology transfer and intelligence portion of the agreement.

“I don’t think the Australians want to see us,” he said, adding that the Americans might recognize Canada “if we push them hard enough.” He said U.S. support would be a condition for Canada showing more initiative to meet NORAD’s modernization goals in the Arctic.

Turnbull, however, argued that it is in the best interest of all allies to let Canada, and perhaps New Zealand, join the non-nuclear aspects of the arrangement.

“Would Canada be better off not participating in a partnership with Britain, Australia and the United States to build nuclear-powered submarines? That’s a question only Canadians can answer,” Turnbull said.

The former prime minister stated that the defense relationship between the members of the Five Eyes alliance “is very close. Many people are asking how they can become closer.”

“But if we can be closer, if we collaborate, technology collaboration can be smoother, it can only be good.”

‘Canada has a lot to offer AUKUS’

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies agrees. He said a number of Canadian policy frameworks and initiatives – particularly those related to the ownership and development of critical minerals – are important potential partners.

“Canada has a lot to offer for AUKUS, and vice versa,” the report said.

“But striking the right balance remains a challenge for both sides. For Australia, England and the United States, opening the door to too many partners too soon risks making the agreement too broad and unwieldy.”

For Canada, the report said, the downside of joining AUKUS would be “demands in the long term for a dramatic increase in defense spending that may not be easily accepted by Ottawa and the public writ.”

The consequences of not joining may be less palatable, the report said.

“Beyond reputational damage, Canada’s weak security posture in the face of increasing challenges from revanchist and revisionist powers will compromise Canada’s national interests, as can be seen with Russia’s aggressive moves in the Arctic and China’s increasingly hostile activities in Canada, including election interference.”