ABU DHABI — If the world gets lucky, this could be the year fossil fuel producers and climate activists bury the hatchet and join hands to reduce emissions and ensure the future of our planet.
If there is no Utopian hope, take up with the leaders of this resource, renewables-yielding Middle Eastern monarchy. The United Arab Emirates is determined to inject specificity, urgency, and pragmatism into a process that often lacks all three: the 28th meeting of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP 28, which will be hosted by the UAE from November 30 to December. 12.
To kick off 2023, the oil and gas and climate communities are gathering this weekend for the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum, launching the annual Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. After decades of mutual mistrust, there is a growing recognition that they cannot live without each other.
Thank Russian President Vladimir Putin’s criminal war on Ukraine, and his ongoing energy arsenal, for injecting a new dose of hard reality into the climate conversation. It is rare that energy security and cleaner energy are inseparable. The guiding principle is the “energy sustainability trilemma,” defined as the need to balance energy reliability, affordability, and sustainability.
What has contributed to this new pragmatism is the recognition by many in the climate community that the energy transition to renewables cannot be achieved without fossil fuels, so they must be cleaner. They agree that natural gas, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG), with half the emissions of coal, provides a powerful bridging fuel.
Once derided by green activists, nuclear power is also winning over new fans—especially when it comes to small, modular plants that have fewer concerns about security and weapons proliferation.
For their part, almost all major oil and gas producers, who once viewed climate activists with disdain, now accept the reality of climate science and are investing billions of dollars in renewable energy and efforts to make fossil fuels cleaner.
“Every serious hydrocarbon producer knows the future, in a world of reduced fossil fuel use, is low cost, low risk and low carbon,” said David Goldwyn, former State Department special envoy for energy. “The only way to make sure we do this is to have the industry at the table.”
Nowhere is the shift among climate activists more evident than in Germany, where Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, leader of the Green Party, is pragmatist-in-chief.
Habeck, who is the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has been the driving force behind the extension of the life of three nuclear plants in the country until April and the launch of Germany’s first LNG import terminal in December, with up to five more to follow. .
“I am ultimately responsible for the security of the German energy system,” Habeck told Financial Times reporter Guy Chazan in a profile of German politicians. “So, the buck stops with me. … I am a minister to make difficult decisions, not the most popular politician in Germany.”
Some climate activists were surprised this Thursday when the UAE named Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), as this year’s COP 28 president.
“This promise goes beyond putting the fox in charge of the henhouse,” said Teresa Anderson of ActionAid, a development charity. “Like last year’s peak, we increasingly see fossil fuel interests controlling the process and shaping it to meet their own needs.”
What is overlooked is that Al Jaber’s rich background in renewable and fossil fuels makes him an ideal choice when efforts to address climate change have been too slow, lacking inclusivity to produce more transformative results.
Al Jaber is the CEO of the world’s 14th largest oil producer, but at the same time he is the founding CEO of Masdar, one of the world’s largest renewable energy investors, where he remains chairman. He also represents a country that, despite its wealth of resources, has become a major nuclear power producer, the first Middle Eastern country to join the Paris Climate Agreement and the first Middle Eastern country to draw up a road map to net zero emissions by 2050.
Over the past 15 years, the UAE has invested $40 billion in renewable energy and clean technology around the world. In November, he signed a partnership with the United States to invest an additional $100 billion in clean energy. About 70% of the UAE’s economy is generated outside of the oil and gas sector, making it an exception among major producing countries in diversification.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, president of the United Arab Emirates, explained his country’s approach in this way: “There will be a time, 50 years from now, when we load the last barrel of oil on board. The question is … Will we be sad? If our investment today is right, I think – dear brothers and sisters – we will celebrate that moment.”
Al Jaber, speaking to the Global Energy Forum of the Atlantic Council, on Saturday, achieved his ambition to drive faster and more transformative results at COP 28.
“We are way off track,” Al Jaber said.
“The world is playing catchup when it comes to the key Paris goal of keeping the global temperature down to 1.5 degrees,” he said. “And the hard reality is that in order to achieve this goal, global emissions must decrease by 43% by 2030. To increase the challenge, we must reduce emissions at a time of economic uncertainty, higher geopolitical tensions and increased energy pressure.”
He calls for “transformational progress … through partnerships, game-changing solutions and outcomes.” He said the world needs to triple renewable energy production from eight terawatt hours to 23 hours, and more than double low-carbon hydrogen production to 180 million tons for the industrial sector, which has the hardest carbon footprint to reduce.
“We will cooperate with the energy industry to accelerate decarbonization, reduce methane, and develop hydrogen,” Al Jaber said. “Let’s stay focused on curbing emissions, not progress.”
If it sounds Utopian, let’s have another.
— Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.