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If Sunak and his party had hoped that the new year would at least show a sign that the situation would improve, so far they have been disappointed. All polls this year have LAB leading by 20% or more and the changes are mostly in line with the margin of error.
The best message is from looking at the details of the trends we saw last year – the Tories are suffering because of a significant chunk of the GE2019 vote now saying they don’t know. So while YouGov now has only 42% of former voters supporting the party, only 9% have switched to LAB with 24% saying they don’t know.
My guess is that in the general election situation, a large part of the GE2019 supporters will support the blue team.
Mike Smithson
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