The last Nigerian president to leave a viable successor was Olusegun Obasanjo, who left office in 2007.
Even then, his administration’s economic progress was undermined by his unconstitutional third term ambitions, the massacre of hundreds of unarmed civilians in Odi and conflicts over oil.
Since then, the clamor has been for change rather than continuity. Umaru Yar’Adua ruled from his sick bed, almost caused a constitutional crisis, and ended up dying in office.
Goodluck Jonathan, the unwitting president who inherited the office of his predecessor, will be remembered for his failure to bring back close to 300 girls kidnapped by Boko Haram, 100 of whom are still missing.
Muhammadu Buhari, over two terms, has presided over a collapsing currency and a contracting economy, even as insecurity grows and the brain drain mounts.
If all goes according to plan – and it is unlikely – Nigerians will go to the polls on Saturday looking for more change.
Usually, the election here is a two-horse race but this time is a little different. There are three frontrunners and one dark horse. In the absence of reliable polling, it is difficult to assess the depth of support for any candidate.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the incumbent’s All Progressives Conference, is a political expert who has, for more than two decades, reigned supreme at the local and national levels. Now, with the formidable political machine of the ruling party, he has a chance to sit on the throne.
Atiku Abubakar, Obasanjo’s vice president, has run for the top job on five previous occasions. They have lost each time but have developed a power base that cuts across Nigeria’s traditional geographic, religious and ethnic divides. He styles himself as a pro-business candidate.
Peter Obi, the surprise leader, made his name as governor of Anambra State. He is the only governor in the history of Nigeria who left the state coffers better than he found them.
He has a reputation for modesty and frugality, unlike other politicians, but he may struggle to find support outside his power base in the south, although he has chosen a partner from the north to mitigate this.
The dark horse is Rabiu Kwakanso, the former governor of Kano State who has a cult-like following in the north, who has 22.5 million voters out of the 93.5 million eligible in the state.
An incredibly strong field of candidates makes any predictions. The winning candidate needs a majority of the popular vote, plus at least 25% in at least 24 of the 36 states. If no candidate meets both criteria, the top two will advance to a run-off election in three weeks, with supporters of the eliminated candidate up for grabs.
This will be Nigeria’s first president and no one knows what to expect.
But what matters most is whether Nigerians will get the change they want, and deserve – whether their leaders will serve with heart and strength, one nation bound in freedom, peace and unity, as the national anthem promises. Will she (there are no women in the highest echelons of Nigerian politics) achieve the heights and build a country where peace and justice will reign.
This article first appeared on The Continentt, a pan-African weekly newspaper produced in partnership with Mail & Guardians. It is designed to be read and shared on WhatsApp. Download your free copy here.