New weapons, more troops: Ukraine, Russia both seek advantage as next major offensive looms

News that the United States could quickly deploy rockets nearly double the firepower of Ukrainian troops gave Kyiv a big lift on Wednesday, even as its forces were pushed back by Russia’s relentless winter offensive in the east.

Two U.S. officials said a new $2 billion U.S. military aid package to be announced this week will for the first time include the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), a new weapon designed by Boeing.

The low-cost cruise missile can hit targets more than 150 kilometers away, a dramatic improvement over the 80-kilometer rockets fired by the HIMARS system, which changed the face of warfare when Washington deployed it last summer.

This means that most of Russian-held Ukraine may be under some Ukrainian forces, forcing Moscow to move some of its ammunition and fuel storage sites back to Russia.

Russia has the momentum

The expected U.S. announcement comes a week after Western nations pledged for the first time the advance of main battle tanks, a breakthrough in support aimed at giving Kyiv the ability to retake territory it controls this year.

But the arrival of new weapons is still months away, and now, Russia has gained momentum on the battlefield for the first time since mid-2022, in a brutal winter war both sides describe as a meat grinder.

Russia is massing military forces in Ukraine’s Luhansk region, local officials said, in what Kyiv suspects is preparations for an attack on the eastern region in the coming weeks to commemorate Moscow’s invasion.

Kremlin forces are evicting local residents from their homes near Russian-held front lines to prevent them from providing information about the deployment of Russian troops to Ukrainian artillery, Luhansk Governor Serhii Haidai said.

“There is an active transfer from [Russian troops] to the area and definitely get ready in the east in February,” said Haidai.

Military analysts expect a new push by Moscow’s forces, with the Institute for the Study of War saying in its final assessment on Tuesday that “a Russian attack in the coming months is the most likely action.”

The battle for Bakhmut rages building by building

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Russia could deploy more than 200,000 personnel and continue to acquire weapons and ammunition through domestic production and partnerships with authoritarian states, the agency said.

The new attack may coincide with the February 24th anniversary of the invasion.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Wednesday that Russia is also concentrating its efforts in the neighboring Donetsk province, especially in its attempt to capture the main city of Bakhmut.

Moscow has announced advances north and south of the city of Bakhmut in recent days, a key target for months.

Troops were fighting building to building in Bakhmut to gain barely 100 meters at night, and the city came under constant Russian shelling, soldiers in the Ukrainian unit of Belarusian volunteers told Reuters from inside the city. Russian troops were maneuvering to try to surround them.

The city was once a popular tourist destination – literally wine and roses – but is now home to Russia’s longest-running battleground. Despite bombing, attacking and trying to surround Bakhmut for six months, the Russian forces were unable to defeat it.

‘It’s hell on earth’

But scorched earth tactics make it impossible for civilians to survive there.

“Now it’s hell on earth; I can’t find enough words to describe it,” said Ukrainian soldier Petro Voloschenko, known on the battlefield as Stone, his voice rising with emotion and anger.

Voloschenko, originally from Kyiv, arrived in the region in August when the Russian offensive began.

The 44-year-old saw the city, which is located about 100 kilometers from the Russian border, gradually fall into ruins. Most of the houses were destroyed, and there were only a few thousand residents of the 80,000 before the war.

The city regularly trembles with the muffled sound of explosions, the whizzing of mortars and the constant soundtrack of artillery. Everywhere is a potential target.

Bakhmut offers the only approach to the region’s larger Ukrainian-controlled cities, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.

The Russians were the least trained in the front line

Months of war had exhausted both armies. In the fall, Russia changed its tactics and sent foot soldiers instead of checking the front lines mainly with artillery, according to Voloschenko.

Bielieskov said the least trained Russians were the first to force the Ukrainians to open fire and expose their defensive strengths and weaknesses.

Units or better-trained mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company run by rogue billionaires and known for their brutality, are the rearguard, Bielieskov said.

Bielieskov said that Ukraine compensated for the lack of heavy equipment with people who were ready until the end.

As a result, the war is believed to have resulted in a crushing troop defeat for both Ukraine and Russia. Just how deadly it is is unknown because neither party will speak.

“Labor is less of a Russian problem and, in some ways, more of a Ukrainian problem, not only because the casualties are painful, but often … Ukraine’s best troops,” said Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war. studied at King’s College London.

‘Symbol of Ukrainian invincibility’

In January, Russia captured the town of Soledar, less than 20 kilometers away, but progress was slow, according to military analysts.

Bakhmut remains under the control of the Ukrainian army, although it is more of a fortress than a place to visit, work or live.

“Bakhmut has become a symbol of Ukrainian invincibility,” Voloschenko said. “Bakhmut is the heart of Ukraine, and the future peace of the cities that are no longer under their control depends on the rhythm they follow.”

WATCH | Ukrainian resilience in the face of war:

Meanwhile, in Kyiv, Ukrainian authorities continue what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy touts as a sweeping clampdown on corruption that could change the country.

Separate raids were carried out at the Tax Office and at the home of an influential former interior minister, two days before Kyiv hosts a summit with the European Union where Kyiv wants to show it has cracked down after years of chronic corruption.

Ukraine sees Friday’s summit as crucial to its hopes of joining the rich bloc, an increasingly important goal after the Russian invasion, and has also begun a political shake-up in which more than a dozen officials resigned or were fired last week.

Other developments related to Wednesday’s fight:

• Turkey looks positively on Finland’s application for NATO membership, but does not support Sweden’s offer, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday. Of the 30 NATO members, only Turkey and Hungary have not yet ratified the membership of the Nordic countries.
• Latvia will not send athletes to the Olympics that include Russians and Belarusians while the invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, a spokesman for the country’s Olympic committee said on Wednesday.
• The Kremlin on Wednesday welcomed Russian company Fores’ offer of a $72,000 “bounty payment” to soldiers who destroyed Western-made tanks on the battlefield in Ukraine, saying it would spur Russian forces to victory.