NATO member states are in a “logistics race” with Russia to get vital supplies of ammunition to Ukraine’s army as Moscow begins an expected offensive in the country’s east, alliance leaders have warned.
Jens Stoltenberg said Russia had launched a long-anticipated offensive in eastern Ukraine ahead of the first anniversary of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24, causing the Ukrainian army to consume ammunition at an unprecedented rate. The NATO secretary general said during a meeting of allied defense ministers who want to coordinate the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
“The reality is that we have seen the beginning [of the Russian offensive] already. . . send thousands and thousands more troops,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday. “It’s clear that we’re participating in a logistics race. Key capabilities are like ammo. . . must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.
“The war of attrition is becoming a war of logistics,” he said. “Yes, we have challenges. Yes, we have problems. . . but we have strategies to overcome them.
Ukraine’s ammunition shortage is “acute”, a senior western intelligence official told the Financial Times, adding that the speed of western supplies will be critical to the outcome of Russia’s efforts to regain the initiative in the war.
Kyiv forces are estimated to fire more than 5,000 artillery rounds a day – equivalent to the order of smaller European countries for a year in peacetime.
Russia is expected to fire four times a day as it seeks to gain territory in the east of the country and deploy tens of thousands of newly trained troops in the war.
Russian forces advanced to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donbas region in a fierce battle that has been compared to the conditions of the first world war. Moscow is simultaneously targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure nationwide with long-range missile strikes.
“The war in Ukraine is using a lot of ammunition and reducing the allies’ stocks. Ukraine’s current level of ammunition expenditure is higher than the current level of production. This puts our defense industry under strain,” Stoltenberg said.
Ammunition is expected to be the most critical topic of discussion at the meeting of NATO defense ministers, which will also feature a debate on the potential deployment of fighter jets.
Stoltenberg said that for large-caliber ammunition, the factory delivery waiting time has increased to 28 months from 12 months.
“We don’t just sit there and do nothing. . . The industry has the ability to increase production in the short term,” he said. “You can have another shift, you can work weekends.
“We need to increase production and invest in production capacity,” he said.
NATO recently concluded an emergency inventory check of allied army ammunition stocks and future orders in response to the extraordinary shortage of reserves due to supporting Ukraine in the war.
This will allow the alliance to better understand where supplies are most strained and where immediate focus is needed, Stoltenberg said.
Ukraine’s Western allies “need to move things quickly while defending their territory”, Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said, adding that “new and additional commitments” would be made this week.
Separately on Monday, Poland began training Ukrainian troops on German Leopard 2 main battle tanks. The month-long training in the southern Polish village of Świętoszów, was conducted by Polish, Canadian and Norwegian military instructors.
“There are 105 soldiers being trained here,” said the commander of the training group, senior staff figure Krzysztof Sieradzki, adding that more Ukrainian soldiers are expected to arrive.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said the international coalition on Leopards announced last month is gradually coming together, with Canada having sent tanks to Poland, which will be sent to Ukraine once the training of soldiers is completed. “We are waiting for the tank from Norway, the instructor is already here. We are talking with the Spanish team,” said Błaszczak.