Multiple factors could shape the outcome of Nigeria’s 2023 elections (2), By Uche Igwe

Despite the erosion of his support base, Mr. Atiku Abubakar remains a strong candidate for the Nigerian presidency next February – one of the top three contenders. However, the path to victory becomes more complicated and blurred due to circumstances beyond our control. His supporters have recently deployed figures who positively portray him as strong and in a position to secure second place, giving him an advantage to defeat the ruling party in the event of a runoff. But some numbers are more speculative than factual.

President Buhari’s note abysmal performance remains Another cumbersome baggage on the shoulders of Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Even if it succeeds in seeking the reputation of the problematic presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it will be difficult to sell the program to the public as continuation of Buhari’s agenda and policies. Nigerians are already angry and can’t wait for the administration to come down. It is recalled that the ruling party’s victory in 2019 was small, indicating a limited level of public acceptance. Before now, many people were convinced that the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) would win the next election held in the country, especially after winning in Edo and Osun states. However, the current posture of the PDP may be different from what was projected.

PDP Jettisoned zoning For My Heart’s Favor

Zoning and The rotation of power between the South and the North of the country remains a contentious issue in Nigerian politics. After eight years under President Buhari, the Muslim North, many people expected that the appropriate thing would be for ask for the South Christian for his success. Governor come together and agree to support such a candidate. However, the opposite is true in the PDP with the emergence of Atiku, after one of the front line contestants, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, withdrew from the contest. Although the party supports that decided to jettison zoning to get candidates who are likely to win the election for it, The argument did not sit well with many party leaders from the southern part of the country, especially the governors. They see it as a betraying the mutual agreement that power should go to the South. This led to intra-party conflicts, which the party found difficult to resolve.

Forever Dagreement with G5 Governor There Are Avoidable Distractions

Five PDP governors, led by a former presidential candidate and governor of Rivers State, formed a pressure group known as the G5, to make several demands in exchange for the continued support of the presidential candidate. Part of their demands include the resignation of the party chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, to pave the way for inclusion and balance. They emphasize that it is not fair for a Northerner hold the party’s presidential ticket, while another Northerner remains the party’s Chairman. So far, the stalemate has not been resolved, despite several meetings. However, the situation seems to be deteriorating, lead to public exchanges that have weakened party cohesion. One of the impeached governors has reportedly endorsed an opposition candidate, and others are expected to follow. Recently, the governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, closed the building of Abubakar Atiku’s campaign headquarters in the country. The optics of the ongoing controversies in the PDP presidential campaign, as well as local politics in the five states, do not look good. The governor’s indecisiveness or lack of support may undermine Atiku’s chances of winning the presidency. These states were party strongholds in the 2015 and 2019 elections.

There is speculation that President Muhammadu Buhari may be more inclined to support Mr. Atiku Abubakar than his party’s candidate. People familiar with the president’s ‘body language’ insist that he is not comfortable with the Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by his party. Furthermore, the PDP candidate is a Fulani, and President Buhari has not hidden the fact that he wants to appear very loyal to the ethnic group.

President Buhari’s Support Can Be An Inhibitor Rather than a Catalyst to Atiku’s Aspirations

There is speculation that President Muhammadu Buhari may be more inclined to support Mr. Atiku Abubakar than his party’s candidate. People familiar with the president’s ‘body language’ insist that he is not comfortable with the Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by his party. Furthermore, the PDP candidate is a Fulani, and President Buhari has not hidden the fact that he wants to appear very loyal to the ethnic group. But, everything the idea that Northern Fulani Muslims are trying to succeed fellow Fulani Muslims does not sit well with many Nigerians, especially minorities nation, as well as Christians throughout the country. Such perceptions can work against PDP candidates and diminish their prospects. However, Atiku still promised to do only one job and leave it to Southern Christians. The promise did not sit well with Southern Christians, except for a few like the former Speaker of the DPR, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara and his group.

Atiku Has A Wide Network But His Son Has Limited Patronage Capabilities

Former Vice President maintain wide popularity in Northern Nigeria, with a high voting population. This could be one of the advantages, because those who nominated him believe that he will be valued as the best person to defeat the ruling party. He also enjoyed the friendship of the South. He is one of the few Nigerians still alive can boast of an active national political network. It is not clear how many votes these factors can bring, especially knowing that most of the key people are currently out of office and do not have the resources or patronage ability to do this. There is also a limit on who can rely on Northern governors to eliminate presidential candidates for him because of the possible implications on the local support base. Furthermore, some of the governors who completed their terms may be jostling for good positions in the middle in the event of an APC victory.

The emergence of Peter Obi has eliminated the support base of my heart

At The resignation of Mr. Peter Obi from the Peoples Democratic Party is, in many ways, a political distraction. He was Mr. Atiku’s former running mate in the 2019 election. Many observers predict that the 2023 election will be a deal breaker for PDP if Obi remains his running mate. Nigerians are quite angry with the ruling party, and the duo gave hope until the former governor of Anambra State decided to resign. Brother popularity is now on the rise throughout the country and has fed into the traditional stronghold of the PDPthereby destroying Mr. Atiku’s support.

Although the residual support base is for people in the South-South and South-East, and even in the North-Central, But it seems that Atiku will be difficult to muscle the requisite 25% between these countries. At least with Peter Obi in the race and the determination of Nyesom Wike and his G5 colleagues to play spoiler. The former Vice President is positioned to inherit President Buhari’s support base in the North. However, he doesn’t have the credentials to fit that mold.

Kwankwaso and his NNPP Can Disrupt the Political Algorithm in the North-West

Another critical factor that cannot be easily overlooked is the role of Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). They continues to enjoy support in Kano and Jigawa states and could be a potential distraction from the political algorithm in the North-West. His presence on the ballot could alter the vote projection for APC and PDP. Kano has a vote strength 5,927,565when Jigawa has 1,997,000 votes were registered. If the majority of this vote goes, it will equip him with a lot of bargaining power, if a clear winner does not emerge in the first round of the election.

The pulse of corruption in the image of the former vice president is difficult to erase

Corruption is not a common feature of the reputation of the average Nigerian political elite. But a The reputation of corruption is evident in Atiku’s politics, although usually. A reputation that has been further complicated by how his former boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo, considered him a thief who stole public funds.. Although he was said to be a wealthy businessman before joining politics, corruption has remained a part of his political career. His critics point to a dubious privatization program he oversaw that allowed him and his cronies to buy juicy government properties in prize money, through proxies. However, this tag has given it a lifetime that resists media deodorization.

My Heart Remains A Strong Candidate But The Road To Victory Is Blurry

Despite the erosion of his support base, Mr. Atiku Abubakar remains a strong candidate for the presidency of Nigeria, next February – one of the top three contenders. However, the path to victory becomes more complicated and blurred due to circumstances beyond our control. His supporters have recently deployed figures who positively portray him as strong and in a position to secure second place, giving him an advantage to defeat the ruling party in the event of a runoff. But some numbers are more speculative than factual. There is no evidence that they still maintain the level of support indicated in the report. Although the residual support base is for people in the South-South and South-East, and even in the North-Central, But it seems that Atiku will be difficult to muscle the requisite 25% between these countries. At least with Peter Obi in the race and the determination of Nyesom Wike and his G5 friends to play spoiler. The former Vice President is positioned to inherit President Buhari’s support base in the North. However, he doesn’t have the credentials to fit that mold. The same feature that sets him apart is what endears him to Nigerians. Time will tell if this is a political asset or liability.

Uche Igwe is a Visiting Fellow at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He can be contacted at u.igwe@lse.ac.uk