French President Emmanuel Macron is facing his biggest showdown with French unions since coming to power in 2017, with a series of strikes and protests over a pension overhaul seen as decisive for both sides.
As labor groups look to bring the country to a “stop” on Tuesday, AFP looks at what’s at stake for the president, the unions and the country in general.
– What in the reform? –
Macron’s flagship proposal would raise the minimum retirement age from the current level of 62 to 64, bringing France more in line with its EU neighbors, which generally lower the retirement age to 65 or higher.
The law also strengthens the requirements for full retirement and will remove the privileges enjoyed by some public sector employees, such as in the Paris Metro.
Also read: ‘We have to work longer’: France’s Macron defends pension reform
After initially claiming that the aim was to make the system fairer, the government is now emphasizing savings.
“The status quo in the next 10 years means 150 billion euros [$160 billion] accumulated deficits and a decline in the quality of life of pensioners,” Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt said at the weekend.
The changes, which will also see a small increase for the lowest pensioners, are scheduled to take effect in September.
– Who is the enemy? –
French trade unions have organized five days of protests so far, but Tuesday will see them shift into higher gear, with threats of strikes that could lead to major strikes in the coming days.
The main complaint is that the changes penalize unskilled workers who tend to start their careers earlier and often work hard in physically demanding jobs, unlike university graduates.
He also disputed the government’s claims of a deficit for the pay-as-you-go pension system, saying low contributions could keep it solvent.
The union is backed by the hard-left French political party Unbowed (LFI), which wants the retirement age lowered to 60, as well as the Socialists and the Greens.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right party also opposed the overhaul, while expressing unease at attempts to paralyze France with ongoing attacks.
Many left-wing intellectuals have also voiced their opposition, notably star economist Thomas Piketty, who sees Macron cementing his reputation as the “president of the rich”.
– What is at stake for Macron? –
After trying and failing to complete pension reform during his first term, Macron returned to the issue during his re-election campaign last April.
He defeated Le Pen who ran on another pro-business platform that promised to reduce unemployment and make French people “able to work more” to fund the country’s social security system.
But political analysts say his mandate is weak, and Macron himself admitted in his victory speech that many people voted for him just to keep Le Pen from power.
Also read: The French government has not ruled out pension reform
Despite warnings from allies about the timing of reforms after the Covid-19 pandemic and amid a cost-of-living crisis, the 45-year-old is pushing ahead.
“For Emmanuel Macron, stepping down would be an abdication,” senior right-wing senator Bruno Retailleau, who supports the reforms, said on Sunday. “If he resigns, he can no longer reform, his tenure will be over.”
– What about public opinion? –
About two-thirds of voters told the poll they were against the change, and a majority of people supported the strike.
The opposition appears to be particularly strong in small and medium-sized towns, where Le Pen draws much of her support.
Also read: France under attack over Macron’s pension reform plans
Fears that the changes could spark the so-called “Yellow Vest” protests, a spontaneous and sometimes violent anti-government movement in 2018, are not yet unfounded.
Despite his unpopularity, two out of three people believe that the reforms will be carried out, a poll by the Elabe group showed on Monday.
– Is this protest typical? –
The government is expecting a difficult journey – some major changes are happening in France without protest.
For left-wingers, any attempt to roll back workers’ rights – down to short working hours, low pensions or protected employment contracts – is seen as an attack on the achievements of the labor movement over the past century.
Today’s protests may extend beyond 2010, when right-wing president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the retirement age to 62 from 60.
They are also bigger than in 1995, when the government was forced to retire the well-known.
But the impact of Tuesday’s stoppages was different, with the advent of work from home and new technology reducing disruption.
“Currently, the mobilization of the French people to demonstrate or strike has been important, but probably not enough to have a significant macroeconomic impact,” wrote economists at ING bank on Monday.
– Who will win? –
The government’s strategy is clear: rush the legislation through parliament and secure a vote by the middle of this month or March 26 at the latest.
Although Macron’s centrist party does not have a majority in the National Assembly, it must be able to rely on the right-wing Republican party for support in both chambers to secure the necessary majority.
“A reversal like this would be very difficult and impossible,” Jerome Jaffre, a political analyst at the Cevipof research institute in Paris, told LCI television on Monday.
“Even the opposition leaders, I’m not sure if they believe it.”