Are you enjoying the start of the new lunar calendar year? The Year of the Rabbit is supposed to represent hope, peace and prosperity. And we’ll all need more of that in 2023. But for now, this week will likely focus on more difficult matters now, not least China’s ability to vaccinate its citizens during the holiday season.
Industrial disputes will continue to rage with ambulance workers in England and Wales due to strike again on Monday. In Portugal, cabin crew at national carrier TAP will begin strike action on Wednesday amid a dispute over the airline’s pay offer and working conditions.
In Westminster politics on Tuesday, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy will take a more positive tone when setting out the party’s policy priorities. He will probably weigh in on the UK’s relationship with the EU.
Coincidentally, Monday was the 10th anniversary of former prime minister David Cameron’s speech on Europe in which he promised to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union and offer a referendum on membership. Perhaps Lammy will reference this.
Also in England, but not with the British government, Nigeria because Mount high-stakes legal trial in the London High Court there. The case involves a long-running effort to overturn an $11bn arbitration award that left the Nigerian government owing more than a quarter of its foreign reserves to an obscure oil and gas company.
The main election news in the next seven days is the Czech presidential election, which ends on Saturday. Former NATO commander Petr Pavel is the leader. Also, Donald Trump is back. The former US president is expected to make his first public appearance on the 2024 campaign trail on Saturday, when he will name the South Carolina leadership team.
Economic data
Shoppers walk past the Gucci display window at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which reported inflation data on Wednesday © Chen Lin / Reuters
The fourth week of the month should be renamed survey week. Over the next seven days, we have G7 country comparisons with an update on the purchasing managers’ index and the Confederation of British Industry’s industrial trends survey on Tuesday, followed by Germany’s Ifo Business Climate report on Wednesday, as well as other measures of consumer confidence.
On Thursday, the US released its first estimate for gross domestic product movements in the fourth quarter of last year. Spain will follow on Friday. Inflation updates are due from the UK, Australia, Spain, Sweden and Singapore on Wednesday. Japan will also report the consumer price index cost of living measure.
In central banker news, European Central Bank board member Fabio Panetta will appear before the European parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee on Monday. Across the Atlantic, the Fed entered a period of relaxation ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which begins on January 31, and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy committee will raise rates by more than 25 basis points to 4.50 percent with the possibility of signaling a pause in further hikes. .
Company
Tech earnings are a key theme this week; investors remain concerned about the prospects for the sector after a series of significant job cut announcements by most of the largest companies. The approach taken by Microsoft, which reported double digits on Tuesday, could serve as a model for other Big Tech players, according to West Coast editor Richard Waters. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella managed to strike a note of cautious optimism when he announced 10,000 layoffs last week to reduce his cost base.
It will be another week to watch Elon Musk (like every other week) with Tesla reported fourth quarter numbers on Friday. The company has reduced the price of electric vehicles to increase demand in the US and Europe. We assume Musk will follow the FT’s coverage of the latest sum claimed by the billionaire’s lawyers last week in court.
The war in Ukraine has boosted the fortunes of the world’s biggest defense contractor with the government promising to increase spending on arms and other military equipment. Investors will be looking for comments from Lockheed Martin (reporting there) and Northrop Grumman (out there) to see if the promise will generate future profits.