While the Bitcoin halving is not expected until March 13, 2024, according to Coinwarz data, Litecoin investors can already expect a traditionally bullish event as early as this year. According to NiceHash estimates, Litecoin halving will take place in 189 days, on July 19, 2023.
Halving is approaching Rekt Capital analysts have been asked to examine the historical price trends of Litecoin before and after the halving to give predictions for the coming months.
285% Litecoin Rally On The Cards?
Reg Capital record that LTC tends to rally quite a lot before the half. Before the 1st half, the price fell in 122 days and rose +820% after that. Before half 2, LTC fell in 243 days and increased by 550%.
After two halvings, however, the price gains were even stronger. As the chart below from Rekt Capital shows, Litecoin is up +14,200% after the first halving, and after the second halving, it is “still” 1,574%. From this, analysts get the historical tendency that LTC tends to rally stronger after the halving than before.
However, this does not mean that investing before the halving is historically unprofitable if you find the right time to place a sell order. According to analysts, it can be seen from historical data that LTC saw a strong rally before the halving before the price dropped rapidly.
Litecoin price declined -73% in the first 578 days after the halving. The second half caused the price to drop by -83% before finding the bottom after 458 days. “For the reason it is important to know when the pre-halving rally LTC tends to top,” the analyst said.
As the chart below shows, LTC peaks 31 days before the first event and 61 days before the second event. If this trend continues, the LTC rally could stop 92 days before the halving – that is, in May 2023, according to Rekt Capital.
However, the public meeting can also be completed in early April if it is a second day. Therefore it is also interesting to examine the duration of the protests in terms of time. The first LTC pre-halving rally lasted only 90 days, while the second provided 180 days of excitement among investors. Therefore, analysts conclude:
It looks like $LTC’s pre-halving rally may be prolonged. If this upcoming LTC Pre-Half rally lasts twice as long as the previous PH rally, then this rally will last ~365 days. That finds a meeting with the top of May 2023.
In terms of how much the price of LTC could rise in a month to a half, analysts believe that the rally could push the price up to 285% from the bottom. The rally means that LTC has made gains before the halving and could push the $115 zone.
This is also the high point of the 2019 pre-halving rally. LTC also briefly held support at this level after the 2021 bull market high to form a macro downtrend.
What Happens After Halving?
Post-halving, LTC may face a strong pullback based on historical trends before the accumulation phase begins. The bottom in both cases is lower compared to the previous half. This probably means that LTC will fall between 72% and 77%.
The key is to “watch for a deep post-halving retrace followed by a long consolidation in the approx 70%-wide range,” the analyst explained. A breakout from the accumulation phase could occur after at least 400 days after the halving in July 2023, according to history (still short). In conclusion, Rekt Capital said:
This would coincide with the July 2024 LTC breakout. This would make sense as this #LTC breakout would occur after the 2024 Bitcoin Halving: This would also coincide with BTC’s general trend reversal that occurs at typical Candle 4 in a four-year cycle.
At press time, the price of LTC is up 1.5% in the last 24 hours, trading at $82.43.
Featured images from Michael Fortsch/Unsplash, Charts from TradingView.com