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The Smarkets chart above shows how the next general election most betting seats have moved since the last contest.
Of course this is driven by opinion polls and given that Labor continues to have a very significant lead across the board then it is not surprising that punters are taking the same view of the final result.
I think the problem now for the Tories is that Rishi Sunak has yet to build significant support for himself in the polls. Usually, the new leader will hope that he gets the job. But of course the Tory party was damaged by the crazy events of last Autumn when we saw three Conservative leaders in less than 2 months.
I am not sure if Rishi will contest general elections. He must be able to demonstrate that he is an electoral asset and that more Tory MPs will hold seats with him than any other leader.
This year’s May local elections could be a trigger point if the Tories don’t do well.
Mike Smithson
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