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Undeniably after a very strong performance in yesterday’s election the money is on LAB to win the most seats in the next election.
Of course, the message from the December election is very strong for LAB but both sides are already in the seats they have held and where the Tories have gone too far.
A better test is in CON held seats where the majority are under 10k. Here the evidence from this Parliament is that the LAB is not yet strong. Aside from Wakefield the main challenge has come from LD even in the seats where LAB is elsewhere.
I still believe that LAB has a 72% chance of winning the most seats.
Mike Smithson
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