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R&W introduced this series of polls 15 months ago and in many ways they provide a better guide to general election results than standard polls. This includes the 40 seats 39 of them were taken by the Tories in the last general election in what has become known as the red wall. The other seat of Hartlepool was taken by the Tories in the last election two years ago.
As can be seen in the general election, the Tories have a 9% lead over LAB in the seat. This has now been reversed to a 22% Conservative lead which represents a swing of over 15%.
Although I think LAB is leading by a large margin, there is a question mark over the significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters who say “don’t know”. I guess a lot of them will go back to the blues.
One of the problems LAB will face next time is messaging and trying to ensure that what is said in the national campaign goes down well on the red wall while at the same time trying to win a seat on what has become known as the blue wall. This can prove difficult because in the end the Lib Dems have been performing very well in Westminster by-elections and really have high hopes to take mid-Bedfordshire which is one of the three by-elections coming up.
Mike Smithson
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