A centrist group’s threat to run a third-party presidential candidate in 2024 has caused panic among Democratic strategists — and they could join the party’s most famous third-party headache, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).
The group, No Labels, qualified for the Arizona election earlier this week as it laid the groundwork for a presidential election that Democrats believe will siphon votes from President Joe Biden’s re-election bid. Progressive strategists and Democrats in the state have been alarmed at the possibility of Sinema, who has long worked with the group, running for re-election on the No Label ballot line.
A spokesperson for Sinema did not return requests for comment, and a statement from No Labels never answered questions about whether Sinema could walk the ballot line. Joining forces will make the run-up for Sinema’s reelection bid significantly easier, drastically reducing the number of signatures he must collect to get on the ballot and outsourcing much of the work to groups well-financed by corporate interests.
“In the same way that the No Labels presidential candidate will threaten President Biden’s re-election, the No Labels Senate ticket will threaten the Democrats holding the Senate seat in Arizona,” said Sacha Haworth, who worked on Sinema’s first Senate bid in 2018 and now works for Change Cinema PAC. “But even with millions of money from the interests of the company No Labels, Sinema has no path to re-election – he is a spoiler and nothing else.”
Sinema has not announced that he plans to run for re-election after left the Democratic Party in the midterms of 2022. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a progressive Marine Corps Veteran, has announced that he will run for the Democratic Senate nomination in Arizona.
No Republicans have officially entered the race, but the two main candidates for the party’s gubernatorial bid in 2022 — former news anchor and MAGA favorite Curry Lake and businessman Karrin Taylor Robson — are considering a run for the Senate, as is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. (Lake defeated Robson in the GOP primary before losing to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.)
The moment-beginning general survey of the potential contest shows a close race between Gallego and the Republic, with Sinema in third place. Local Democrats, in general, have lined up behind Gallego and portrayed Sinema, whose opposition to key Biden administration policies helped shrink the president’s legislative agenda, as a spoiler who could do nothing but tilt the election toward the GOP.
The National Democrats are official remain neutral in the contest, fearing the anger of one of the progressive bases of Gallego or Sinema, who they hope will continue to back most of the agenda items of Biden and his nomination.
The biggest obstacle to Sinema’s run may be the process of collecting signatures. If he were to run as an independent, he would need to collect around 60,000 signatures. (The exact requirement is based on the number of registered voters in the state and won’t be known until next year.) One Democratic strategist said it would require an “unprecedented” effort for candidates who have been cut from Democratic volunteers. basic.
However, if Sinema runs on the No Labels party line, he will only need to collect around 6,000 signatures – an easier task.
While collecting signatures may seem like Politics 101, it’s hard to do in large numbers. In order to get the 60,000 eligible signatures, it is likely that the independent Sinema campaign will need to collect closer to 80,000 as many will be disqualified for one reason or another. Gathering signatures has tripped up several statewide bids for office in recent years, including now-Sen. Todd Young’s (R-Ind.) primary in 2016 and Michigan gubernatorial candidate in 2022.
Cinema has a long history with No Labels, which shares politics and hospitality with big business. The group praised his decision to leave the Democratic Party, calling him “one of the strongest allies in Congress,” and produced 10 different videos praising him over the past two years. A review of FEC records found he has received at least $100,000 in donations from the group’s board members, affiliated PACs and donors.
No Label does not disclose donors, despite some leaks in a 2018 story in The Daily Beast; many were private equity investors and executives, including the CEO of Bain Capital and a hedge fund manager who would later become a fundraiser for former President Donald Trump’s re-election bid.
While helping Sinema dislike No Label for Democrats in Arizona, national Democrats also warned that the group’s plans threaten Biden’s re-election. Third Way, an organization that shares No Labels’ moderate policies but is not a non-partisan position, published a report on Tuesday warning that No Labels’ efforts to recruit and run a centrist presidential candidate will help the GOP nomination in 2024.
No Label is often seen as a joke in Washington circles — a group that peddles a business-friendly, bipartisan view of the world that appeals to a few wealthy donors and op-ed columnists but a small portion of the actual electorate. And third-party candidates will have little chance of winning the presidency.
“The best-case scenario is that it makes no difference. The worst-case scenario is that they turn the state red.
– Jim Kessler, founder of Third Way
But Third Way warns that the No Labels effort is well-funded and organized enough to sway the election results. No Label claims to have raised more than $45 million to date, and they also qualify in Colorado.
“The best-case scenario is that it makes no difference,” said Jim Kessler, Third Way’s co-founder and executive vice president for policy. “The worst-case scenario is that he turns the state red. And it doesn’t take many states for that to be a big deal. This, by design or by accident, is a direct threat to Biden’s re-election.
Currently, it is not clear who the actual No Label candidate is. Sinema and centrist friends, Sen. Joe Manchin (DW.Va.), often mentioned, and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) did not rule out being third-party presidential candidates when asked earlier this week.
No Labels insists that independent candidates will not play the role of spoilers, saying polls show potential independent candidates drawing equally from Democratic and Republican voters.
“If the two major parties nominate candidates the majority of Americans do not want to vote for in 2024, No Label believes there is a once-in-a-generation opening for an independent candidate to run and win the White House,” Ryan Clancy, strategist for the group, wrote in a statement. email to HuffPost.
“No Label has said from the beginning that the effort to access our ballot is insurance policy in the event that both parties refuse to appeal to the majority of the common sense of America,” he continued. “If the public does not want an independent ticket, and there is no way to win, No Labels will not line up for any ticket. No one at No Labels has any interest in making spoiler attempts.
Third Way and other Democrats remain skeptical. He noted that No Label’s own map showing the path to 270 electoral votes, he took two-thirds of that number from the states that Biden won in 2020.