Kevin McCarthy faces a battle to become the new Speaker of the House of Representatives ahead of a vote in Congress on Tuesday after what previously appeared to be an easy path to victory became more difficult due to the Republican party’s infighting.
McCarthy, a 57-year-old congressman from California, is the top Republican in the House, and has long been touted as the successor to Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House Speaker who handed down the gavel after her party lost. majority in last year’s midterm elections.
But it remained unclear Tuesday morning whether McCarthy would have enough support from his fellow Republicans to come out in the Speaker election, which will take place after noon. While the majority of House Republicans have supported McCarthy’s bid, a vocal minority has threatened to scupper his ambitions by voting against him.
If McCarthy comes up short, the Speaker’s vote has the potential to unleash chaos on the floor of the House, stymieing the legislative process and exposing fresh fissures in the Republican party fighting over the most advanced path after a relatively disappointing performance in the November midterm elections.
When the GOP eked out enough wins to take back control of the lower house of Congress, the “red wave” McCarthy predicted did not materialize. At the same time, Democrats increased their majority in the Senate, the upper house of Congress, after flipping seats in Pennsylvania.
All 435 members of the House of Representatives participate in electing the Speaker, the first order of business for the new Congress. The Speaker needs a simple majority, or at least 218 votes if the entire House is present, to be elected.
However, McCarthy has struggled for months to maintain support amid opposition from various factions in the Republican caucus, including ultraconservatives and lawmakers disloyal to former president Donald Trump.
McCarthy’s relationship with Trump has for years oscillated between a display of unwavering public loyalty — Trump often refers to the congressman as “my Kevin” — and acrimony. McCarthy reportedly said “I’ve had it with this guy” after the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol, before posing for a smiling photo with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort just weeks later.
In recent weeks, McCarthy has sought to strengthen his position in the party by making deals intended to meet the demands of various dissenters.
Over the weekend, he released a package of proposed rules to change House procedures. But on Sunday night, a group of nine Republican lawmakers published an open letter saying the changes don’t go far enough. They want more concessions that will make it easier to call a vote of no confidence in any Speaker.
“There is no change when there is no change, and it has to start from the top,” said Scott Perry, a Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who wrote the letter on Twitter. “Time to make a change or get out of the way.”
McCarthy’s allies however remained confident of securing the necessary votes. Leaving the Capitol on Monday afternoon, the congressman declined to answer questions from reporters, but said: “I think tomorrow will be good.”
If McCarthy does not secure a majority of votes on the first ballot there, subsequent ballots will be held – something that has not happened on the floor of the House in more than a century. The House must constitutionally elect a Speaker, and cannot proceed to governance until one is elected.
Many on Capitol Hill are strong for the possibility that the process can drag on for days, until McCarthy can build enough support or finally step aside in favor of another candidate. When his deputy, Steve Scalise Louisiana, has supported his boss’s offer, which is seen as the most likely alternative to secure 218 votes if McCarthy fails.