[ad_1]
While the topic may not be on the official agenda, written, or in one of the programs and sideshows, foreign policy experts say the desire to keep the world’s most unequal democracy in the Western tent will be a concern of G7 leaders when they met at the end of this week.
India and Brazil are among the countries invited to observe this year’s annual summit on advanced democratic economies in Hiroshima, Japan.
Both countries are members of the BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The BRICS group has positioned itself as a potential alternative – even a competitor – to the G7 group (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Japan) for almost 50 years.
Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson said the challenge for leaders at this summit and next year is to “unite democracy” against rising authoritarianism as the developing economies of the southern hemisphere are unwilling to declare allegiance.
Brazil, he said, should be watched because “the biggest trading partner today is China and they want to remain an independent voice, a leader in the global south.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau left on Monday for the summit. He will make a bilateral visit to South Korea before the G7 meeting.
Canada has an important role to play in engaging with countries like India that maintain ties and trade with Russia, despite the West’s determination to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine, said Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa.
“I think so [G7 leaders’] hope that these major developing countries will move toward greater isolation of Russia, or at least support of Russia,” said Paris, who advised Trudeau on foreign policy early in his current administration.
“I think that there is a simultaneous effort here to assert a strong position among the G7 core countries of Russia and China while also reaching out to countries like India and Brazil to try to keep them in the camp … the best degree to support the objective strategic.”
The battle for economic loyalty is growing
Paris said the challenge for western leaders is to draw “the big developing countries of the global south into the discourse on Russia and China rather than exclude them.”
“Because, in fact, there is a competition now, between Russia and China on the one hand and the non-geographical West on the other, to try to win. [emerging economies].”
Gordon Houlden, director emeritus of the China Institute at the University of Alberta, said Trudeau secured a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 to press the G7’s case with Commonwealth countries.
Expectations for the meeting should be modest, he said.
“India will not be kicked out of Russia,” said Houlden, a former diplomat. He notes that Moscow is a “supplier of arms, supplier of energy [and] an old friend” from India.
“They may, in my view, be in tune with the situation, but don’t think that India will align with the G7.”
Discussions with India are particularly important as the war in Ukraine will be a major topic at the summit.
Foreign policy experts in the US and Canada say they do not expect to see another wave of major sanctions aimed at Russia coming out of the G7. However, he expects to see leaders focus on enforcing existing penalties.
Plugging leaks in the sanctions regime
Canadian foreign policy officials, speaking in the background on Friday, downplayed the idea that sanctions enforcement will take a lot of time at the G7 table, despite lobbying by Ukraine to stand tough.
The official insisted that the sanctions were being used to undermine Russia’s ability to prosecute the war. But the sanctions regime is not watertight.
“There are leaks and these leaks are due to deliberate evasion” of sanctions by some countries, one senior official said.
“I really don’t anticipate much discussion on this issue because it’s something that has been discussed over and over again.”
On Friday, the United States accused South Africa of sending weapons to Russia in violation of the sanctions. It is something Washington has raised privately for months with the government in Pretoria, which said it was being investigated.
“In the shorter term,” said Matthew Goodman, director of the economic program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the main focus of the G7 leaders’ deliberations is “Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.”
“That’s going to be a problem at the top of the list,” he said.
Goodman said the state of the global economy and efforts to boost growth and reduce inflation were other key points of discussion.
[ad_2]
Source link