Katie Porter’s Senate campaign launch revealed challenges for Democrats

Rep. Katie Porter of California is not subtle about how much f*cks he gave that the state’s senior senator has not yet announced his plans for 2024. The progressive member of Congress from Orange County announced his candidacy for the Senate Tuesday morning, starting what will be a noisy, intense and very expensive campaign to represent California. in 2025.

His candidacy was expected. He is one of California’s most visible figures in liberal and progressive political circles, making a name for himself with viral moments interrogating banking executives, and he has won a competitive seat in California’s historically conservative heartland of Orange County by a slim margin since the blue wave. 2018. .

But she announced it before the California Senate, Dianne Feinstein, the longest-serving member of the Senate, said anything about her plans in 2024. Feinstein, who won the seat in 1992, is now 89 years old, and she expects to retire.

“Everyone is always happy to throw their hat in the ring, and I will announce my plans for 2024 at the appropriate time,” Feinstein said in a statement. “Right now, I’m focused on making sure California has all the resources it needs to deal with the storm that devastated the state and left more than a dozen people dead.”

Rep. Ro Khanna, another progressive member of Congress mulling a Senate run, responded to Porter’s announcement by citing, also, the historic storms and floods hitting the West Coast, told NBC News that “my district is facing historic weather conditions. My focus is this. In the next few months, I will make a decision.

Porter’s initial announcement was a show of strength against possible challengers, such as Khanna, Rep. Adam Schiff, and Rep. Barbara Lee (who had been running a shadow campaign to try to drum up support before going public), but there was no chance. clear the field. Although Porter is one of the strongest fundraisers in the Democratic Party (he raised $25 million in 2022 and has $7 million in the war chest), his rivals also ended the 2022 midterms with a lot of money (Schiff $20 million, Khanna $5 million).

Money is important in any election, but California elections are even more expensive. An expensive media market, a large Democratic voter population, and diverse communities make it difficult for candidates to reach voters. And the state has a nonpartisan primary process, meaning the top two Democrats (and they’ll be Democrats because California Republicans don’t have a credible statewide slate of candidates) who win votes on primary day must be dukes in the general public. election. Combined, that shows the Senate contest that could cost a historic amount.

The race will also get a lot of attention. Some of the Democratic Party’s most recognizable national figures, who often went viral and benefited from Trump’s opposition during his presidency, will be difficult for the country to watch. Each of them will get a lot of donations from progressive and liberal Democratic voters.

This could create a challenge for Democrats running in competitive races across the state in 2024. Although Democrats are only separated from control of the House by a few seats and have several credible paths to recapturing the majority, their chances of controlling the Senate are slim. because of how unfavorable the playing field is. California is a safe haven for Democrats, but the money and attention flowing to Democratic strongholds could hamper efforts to send every dime and ounce of available talent to battleground races in states like Arizona and Pennsylvania. Democrats need to defend 23 seats, including in GOP strongholds like West Virginia, and need all the help they can get to claim a national victory.

Several factors will shape the 2024 California Senate race

Although progressives are recognized as already endorsed by progressive groups, Porter will likely face questions about the alleged treatment of staff and police in her district. He was accused by former employees of using racist and insensitive language and creating a toxic work environment. How much that will affect her race is unclear, especially given the coverage of how female candidates often engage in the kind of sexism that can be associated with her.

He also only ran in the majority-white area of ​​Southern California, and had to develop and implement a strategy to reach the millions of Asian, Black, and Latino voters who make up about half of California’s electorate. The tension over outreach and representation was heightened during the succession battle over Vice President Kamala Harris’ Senate seat when she and Biden were elected. Her vacancy left the Senate with zero Black female representation, and leaders from every demographic group in California were vying for the seat that Sen. Alex Padilla was finally appointed (and he won for a full term in November). Facing a wide array of candidates, Porter won’t be able to make the same case for representation as some of his competitors who could increase representation in California and the Senate.

Politically, his decision to run for Senate also leaves Democrats vulnerable in a highly competitive district that has since returned to Republican hands after Democrats swept all seven House seats in historically Republican Orange County in 2018. Porter faces a tough contest in 2022 against businessman Scott Baugh last year held a redistricted seat and won only a few thousand votes and by a smaller margin than in the previous election.

Baugh is running again for the seat, and he has a better chance of winning the open seat than if he were to face an incumbent. With a small Republican majority in the House and a competitive map in 2024, every seat counts for Democrats to gain control of Congress, or for Republicans to widen their margins and strengthen a Republican president or block Biden’s re-election.