Space defence, US troop deployment and “very important” deal with Britain: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida collected more than souvenirs on a whirlwind diplomatic tour.
Defense has dominated the agenda this week in meetings with the Group of Seven allies in Europe and North America, as the Japanese leader seeks to draw friends closer in the face of a lot of pressure from China, analysts said.
Japan wants to normalize its “role as a great power”, Amy King, associate professor at the Australian National University’s Center for Strategic and Defense Studies, told AFP.
It seeks “the kind of strategic partnership and defense relationship that is quite normal for other countries, but largely absent from Japan” because of its pacifist post-war constitution.
Kishida’s talks have also touched on other topics from trade to climate issues, suggesting he is trying to deepen Tokyo’s ties with its allies.
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Japan is “insuring itself against the decline of US capacity, and working to attract other major democracies to Asia”, King said.
The government announced a major defense overhaul in December, including doubling spending to two percent of GDP by 2027 and pointing to China as the “biggest strategic challenge” to Japan’s security.
Kishida’s diplomatic efforts “illustrate that Japan’s national defense cannot be done by Japan alone”, said Mitsuru Fukuda, a professor at Nihon University who studies crisis management.
“In the past, Japan was able to separate the economy and politics,” doing business with countries like China and Russia while enjoying the security protection of its alliance with the United States.
But the deepening friction between democratic and authoritarian countries, including over Russia’s war in Ukraine, means “we can’t do anything else”, he said.
Also read: Japan, UK, Italy develop next-generation fighter jets
Japan is hosting the G7 this year and Kishida visited all members of the bloc except Germany on a trip that closed with talks in Washington on Friday with US President Joe Biden.
The US and Japanese foreign and defense ministers have agreed to extend the countries’ mutual defense treaty into space, and announced the deployment of more agile US Marine units on Japanese soil.
– ‘Late adjustment’ –
In England, Kishida signed an agreement creating a legal basis for both sides to deploy troops in each other’s territories.
Japan made a similar agreement with Australia last year and discussions are underway for one with the Philippines.
Last year, Tokyo also agreed to develop next-generation fighter jets with Britain and Italy, and increase intelligence and defense cooperation with Australia.
Beijing has been watching the development with unease, warning Japan last year not to “deviate” from bilateral ties.
But analysts say Tokyo is treading carefully to avoid directly challenging its powerful neighbour.
“Expanding the military network is definitely one of the effective ways to counter or try to disrupt China,” said Daisuke Kawai, a researcher at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
Also read: Japan considering long-range missile upgrade due to China threat
But because the deal stops short of a full alliance with defense commitments, it should remain “acceptable for now” to Beijing, Kawai said.
And while the overhaul of Japan’s defense policy and spending has been interpreted by some as a break with the past, others see it as a more subtle shift.
The move “will at least make the Chinese calculate how they can push the envelope of activity in the region”, said Yee Kuang Heng, professor of international security at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy.
But he “still does not tip the regional military balance vis-a-vis China significantly”.
The Japanese population supports the shift
Japan’s post-war constitution prohibits war, and the government’s plan to acquire missiles capable of striking enemy launch sites has fueled debate over the limits of the legal framework.
But polls suggest most Japanese support the shift, although opinion on how to pay is divided, and some observers think it’s long overdue.
“These preventive efforts should not be seen as destabilizing or provocative,” said Euan Graham, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“However, they represent a belated adjustment to a significantly altered balance of power for these authoritarian challengers to the status quo.”
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