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I have tried to imagine the outcome of the election in which Starmer is not PM.
Let’s assume for a moment that there is a big recovery for the Tories and they come out of the general election as the top party but below the threshold required for them to have a majority.
By my calculations, if the Tory loss is more than 47 seats, Starmer could become Prime Minister of a minority government even though his party is second in seats and has fewer votes than the Tories.
The reason of course is that the Tories will find it harder to find partners of supply and confidence than Starmer. You can only imagine some flaky arrangements with the DUP, but that’s all.
Because unlike Labour, the Tories have become uncooperative and this will be Starmer’s great strength.
All of this is why I believe that the 80% betting market chance of Starmer becoming prime minister post-election is good value.
Mike Smithson
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