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But can LAB really make 124 seat gains?
Above is a trend chart showing the betting over nearly two years on the outcome of the next election.
It is very hard with LAB poll leads of 20%+ to argue with the markets but this is not a bet I would place. Those of us old enough to remember GE1992 are very wary about polls and for things can move during a campaign.
More recently we all recall how TMay’s certain victory by a huge margin at GE2017 evaporated during the campaign itself.
Undoubtedly the Tories are going to lose a large proportion of the 362 MPs that they secured at GE21019. Labour is also going to move up sharply from the 202 seats pf GE2019 but I still think an overall majority could be very challenging. Many of the CON losses could be to the LDs who should do well in the “Blue Wall”.
Mike Smithson
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