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When it comes to symbolic, made-for-TV moments, the alleged drone strike on the Kremlin early Wednesday morning ticks all the boxes.
Foreign policy and defense experts say the dramatic, complete, unverified CCTV footage of several objects exploding in the pre-dawn darkness under a fluttering Russian flag is a propagandist’s dream – at least for ultra-nationalists in Moscow worried about maintaining the morale of people are tired of the war ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The fact that the Russian media quickly claimed that it was a Ukrainian attempt to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin (who was not at home in the Kremlin at the time) and the fact that the explosion caused no casualties and little damage only deepened the experts. suspect that the flagpole explosion was (ironically) a false flag operation by Moscow’s security services.
Ukraine strongly denies it is responsible.
WATCH: Unverified video appears to show drone hitting Kremlin
Ukraine has denied having a role in a drone strike that allegedly hit the Kremlin under a flying Russian flag this week.
President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, who is in Helsinki for a meeting with allies, said he believed Moscow carried out the attack to galvanize public opinion in Russia.
“We are not attacking Putin or Moscow,” Zelenskyy said. “We are fighting in our own territory.”
What is surprising to many observers is how there are as many disadvantages as advantages for the Kremlin in accepting the Russian version of events.
‘Military failure’ or false flag?
Yes, it can whip the Russian public into a frenzy before the annual celebration of May 9 Victory Day, commemorating the defeat of the Nazis in World War II. It also looks like a huge shame for the defense and security establishment that has sustained a series of humiliations since the full entry into Ukraine began, said the Kyiv-based defense expert.
A drone hitting a flagpole in the Kremlin – jumping over the air defenses of one of the most guarded districts on the planet – would represent a major “military failure” that usually causes heads to roll, said Oleksandr Musiienko, who heads the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kiev.
This is not the first time Russia has been shy of the air. In 1987, a young German named Mathias Rust evaded Soviet air defenses to land a rented Cessna light plane near Red Square – an event that led to the dismissal of several high-level Russian military leaders.
You want to tweak the Russian bear’s nose? Okay, fair enough. But this does not seem to achieve anything.– Sean Maloney
Musiienko and Sean Maloney, historians and Soviet Cold War tacticians, said they did not accept the Russian version of events – including the claim that it was an attempt on Putin’s life.
“It’s either a reflex to deflect in part, to deflect against weakness, or it’s all part of something they’ve already scripted. It’s one or the other, probably,” said Maloney.
He said the initial Kremlin report was irrelevant and made no military sense.
“It’s my gut feeling. It’s looking … it doesn’t make sense,” he said. “Like, why? If you were going to kill Putin … what would you do? Fly that [drone] through the window? Like what room is she in? Like, come on.”
Maloney said Ukraine has nothing to gain and everything to lose from launching such an attack on the Kremlin.
“I don’t think Ukrainians do,” he said. “We are back to, what purpose does this serve? You want to tweak the Russian bear’s nose? Okay, fair enough. But this doesn’t seem to achieve anything.”
Musiienko said the attack could have done more for Russia than Ukraine. A statement from the Kremlin said Russia reserved the right to retaliate – and hardliners demanded swift retribution against Zelenskyy.
All this reopens the door to a darker prospect, Musiienko said – that Moscow carried out the attack to generate a pretext for renewing the nuclear threat against the West and Ukraine.
“They will say that it is dangerous for the sovereignty of the Russian state and they will examine the nuclear doctrine, the Russian nuclear doctrine, and they will tell you that they have the right to use nuclear weapons,” he said.
Musiienko said we should expect to see ultra-nationalists like Dmitry Medvedev, the former prime minister who is now chairman of Russia’s national security council, start touting nuclear weapons on social media.
The war has increased the number of attacks in Russia in recent weeks. An oil refinery in Crimea was hit by a drone attack last weekend.
According to a trove of Pentagon documents leaked online over the past few months, Ukrainian agents carried out drone strikes in Belarus and Russia – against the wishes of their western allies.
Two documents, reported by NBC News, suggest Ukraine launched provocative operations in neighboring countries. Some allied countries say the move could prompt them to rethink their support for Kyiv.
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