Is Buhari’s Lafia declaration enough to crown Tinubu?

Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have been in turmoil for the past few days leading to predictions of the implosion of the ruling party before or after the general election.

The campaign spent the entire week fighting the “enemy” at the Presidential Villa, who he said was using it to sabotage the ruling party’s chances at the polls by “pushing the implementation of the shoddy Naira redesign” and also guzzling petrol.

The implementation of mopping of old naira notes has created a shortage of money in circulation, which is undoubtedly blamed on the APC-led federal government.

There are pockets of protest in Oyo and Edo states. Amid the Naira scarcity, Mr. Tinubu at a campaign stop in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, floated an idea conspiracy aimed at him.

“Let’s say gasoline is expensive; only they know where they keep it. Keep the petrol, keep the naira, we will vote and be elected. You can change the ink of naira notes. What you want will never happen. We will win,” he said in Yoruba.

The choice of Abeokuta is very good, because it is the same place where he made his famous “Emi Lokan” comment.

In Ekiti State, Mr. Tinubu also said that some people are trying to use the scarcity of naira to create a crisis that will spoil the election and pave the way for a caretaker government.

“They collect naira so you can get angry and fight. They want confusion so that the election can be delayed. What they want is a temporary government. But we are wiser than they. We will not fight. Any rat that eats rat poison will die on its own,” he reiterated in Yoruba at the Ekitiparapo Forum in Ado-Ekiti.

While Mr. Tinubu used public meetings to spread his views, other political friends used television stations to spread conspiracy theories. Within 72 hours of Mr. Tinubu speaking in the Ekiti State capital, Kaduna State Governor Nasir Elrufai was on four different television stations. allegedly the elements in the presidency were working for the government.

Governor Umar Ganduje Kano stated that the policy of the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele is more revenge to the ruling party to stop the presidential ambitions. Ajuri Ngelale, a senior special assistant to President Buhari, also accused Mr. Emefiele of giving the presidency. false information to justify the policy.

To further highlight the alleged political dimension of the CBN policy, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of the Peoples Democratic Party and Labor Party, both expressed support for the policy even as they highlighted how it could be more efficient.

Meanwhile, for a president whose main source of speech is ‘body language’, many have interpreted the crisis in the party as a confirmation of Mr Buhari’s “tactical opposition” to the candidacy of the former Lagos State governor.

Mr. Buhari may not boast of an organized political structure like other politicians. However, he remains a cult hero in the northern core, especially in the northwest and northeast. His performance on security and the economy may have dampened the praise many voters have for him.

Although his endorsement or aloofness carries significant weight, Mr. Buhari is notorious for his reluctance to wield too much political influence. For example, Halilu Ahmed, the sister of her husband, Aisha Buhari, cannot be nominated by the party. Expression of furious by Aisha Buhari does not sway her husband to intervene.

In addition, Fatahu Muhammad, the president’s cousin, lost the primary election to re-contest the Daura Federal Constituency seat.

Also, his loyal representative, Yemi Osinbajo, did not get the support of the president as he suffered a humiliating defeat in the APC presidential election.

Tinubu will win – Buhari

It came as a surprise on Saturday when amid all the conspiracy theories and body language reading, Mr. Buhari attended Tinubu’s rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State, and defined again commitment to the success of the APC presidential campaign.

“I congratulate you and assure you that God will always win,” he said.

He also spoke in Hausa, where he expressed his commitment to Mr. Tinubu and the party.

The agreement drew a swift backlash from the opposition. A former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, who just recently completed his second term in the APC, through Twitter handle flayed the president for encomium on Mr. Tinubu.

“I know PMB likes to make jokes, but I don’t know if he will rise to the level of satire. Asiwaju will give the best for Nigeria, really? Fake certificates, fake parentage, golden triangle escapades, racketeering. No PMB, Nigeria no deserve the best, but we get sarcasm,” he said.

Also, Abdul Mahmoud, a prominent supporter of Peter Obi on Twitter, tweeted that the pronouncement by the president has changed the dynamics of the election.

“Two things have now changed the complexion of the February 25, 2023 presidential election. First, the public declaration by Buhari that Tinubu is his successor. Second, the gung-ho attack launched by BAT media operatives targeting Obi since he left Lafia….

“Buhari has never been known as a successor-coronation. His tweets, which show an evil agenda, mark his grave. Citizens must resist Buhari’s attempt to use presidential powers to fix the polls,” he tweeted.

How can the Lafia Declaration affect the APC?

As of now, the president has not given any new direction on the naira notes. Even the APC governors who visited him could not implement the promise from him to take immediate action. However, the president asked them to give him seven days. Therefore, the policy remains.

The endorsement of the new note policy by Atiku and Mr. Obi also gave the ruling party an opportunity to lend support to the policy as a validation of the fifth columnist theory in government.

“So, you have the story of two presidential candidates: one who stood with the people and said that this currency exchange must stop; the second said, ‘no, it cannot be stopped, it is a good policy. CBN, do not listen to him. Let the people continue to suffer.’ I leave the rest to you to decide who is with you and who is against you,” the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, said at a campaign rally in Lagos.

My heart pushes towards the Northwest

While the ruling party was squabbling, Mr. Atiku held large rallies in Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara. Well, he is Got three members of APC aggrieved from DPR from Katsina – Hamza Dalhatu (Rimi/Charanci/Batagarawa constituency), Salisu Iro (Katsina constituency) and Ahmad Dayyabu (Danmusa/Batsari/Safana constituency) to defect to PDP.

Last year, Ibrahim Babangida (Malumfashi/Kafur constituency), Armaya’u Kado (Dutsin Ma/Kurfi constituency) and Aminu Ashiru (Mani/Bindawa constituency) decamped to the New Nigerian People’s Party.

A source in the APC campaign council told PREMIUM TIMES that Katsina State remains a big challenge for the ruling party.

According to the official, who did not want to be named, the problem in Katsina State started with the nomination of Dikko Radda as the APC governorship candidate in the state. Mr. Radda is said not to be the preferred candidate of Governor Bello Masari.

“I must admit, we have a problem in Katsina, which is unfortunately the president’s home state. I know the governorship candidate is not what Governor Masari wants as a gubernatorial candidate. I think the problem starts from there,” he said.

He, however, dismissed the defecting lawmakers as “disadvantaged lawmakers who failed to get APC tickets.”

Members of the party believe that Mr. Buhari has a duty to provide leadership and send a strong signal to his base that he wholeheartedly wants Mr. Tinubu as his successor. But he had to do so amid challenges from within and outside the party.

Doing that can be another case of last minute intervention. Mr. Buhari has earned a reputation for late intervention. During Mai Mala Buni and the caretaker committee of the APC, the last minute intervention of the president saved the party from an existential threat.

He also used the same last minute intervention to endorse Abdullahi Adamu for the position of national chairman.

It is not clear whether Lafia’s declaration will address these challenges. However, the president will host a presidential rally in Katsina State. Perhaps, another strong statement could convince voters in the northwest to reject other candidates and support the “crown prince” as his successor.