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India is on track to become the world’s most populous nation, surpassing China by mid-2023, according to United Nations figures on Wednesday.
The South Asian country will have an estimated 1.4286 billion people against China’s 1.4257 billion by mid-year, according to UN projections. Demographers say population data limitations make it impossible to calculate an exact date.
China has had the world’s largest population since at least 1950, the year United Nations population data began. Both China and India have more than 1.4 billion people, and together they make up more than a third of the world’s eight billion people.
India is not expected to become the most populous country until the end of this decade. But that time has been accelerated by China’s declining fertility rate, with families having fewer children.
Today, China has an aging population with stagnant growth, even though the government backed away from the one-child policy seven years ago.
In contrast, India has a younger population, a higher fertility rate and has seen a decline in infant mortality over the past three decades. Still, the country’s fertility rate has been steadily declining, from more than five births per woman in 1960 to more than two in 2020, according to World Bank data.
India’s continued growth may have social and economic consequences. It has the largest number of young people, with 254 million aged 15-24, according to the UN.
Growing workforce
Experts say this could lead to an increase in the workforce that could help fuel growth in the country for decades to come. But he warned that it could quickly become a demographic liability if many young people in India are not working enough.
The report surveyed 1,007 Indians, 63 percent of whom said economic issues were their top concern when thinking about population change, followed by concerns about the environment, health and human rights.
“The findings of the Indian survey show that population anxiety has penetrated a large part of the general public. However, the population numbers should not cause anxiety or create alarm,” said Andrea Wojnar, the representative of the UN Population Fund for India, in a statement. He added that it should be seen as a symbol of progress and development “if individual rights and choices are upheld.”
The hope is that the growing number of working-age people will provide a “demographic dividend,” or the potential for economic growth when the young, working-age population outnumbers the share of older people beyond their working years. . This is what has helped China become an economic and global heavyweight, even as the number of working-age adults is shrinking.
On Wednesday, China responded to the news of the UN report, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin saying “the country’s demographic dividend depends not only on quantity but also on quality.”
“Population is important, so is talent … China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared, the talent dividend is underway and the development momentum remains strong,” Wang said at a briefing.
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