Hungarians vote in landmark election that could unseat Orbán

Hungarians started voting on Sunday in an election that could end the 16-year hold on power of Fidesz Leader Viktor Orbán, rattle Russia and send shockwaves through right-wing circles across the West, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s White House.

Orbán, a Eurosceptic nationalist, has carved out a model of an “illiberal democracy” seen as a blueprint by Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and its admirers in Europe.

But many Hungarians have grown increasingly weary of Orbán, 62, after three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs, as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government amassing more wealth.

Opinion polls have shown Orbán’s Fidesz party trailing Péter Magyar’s upstart centre-right opposition Tisza party by seven to nine percentage points, with Tisza at around 38-41 per cent.

Voting ​in the election for the 199-seat parliament started at 6 a.m. local time and is ​due to close at 7 p.m.

Vote could bring record turnout    

Casting his vote for Tisza in the Hungarian capital, Mihaly Bacsi, 27, said the country needed change.

“I think we need change in the country. We need an improvement in public mood, we are full of tensions in many areas and the current government only fuels these sentiments,” Bacsi said.

Pollsters said the election could bring record turnout.

“It would be important to return to our Western ⁠commitment, this is where Fidesz also started a long ⁠time ago and it could be that we will return to the Western path without [Fidesz].”

The ‌vote is being closely watched in Brussels, with many EU peers criticizing Orbán, a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a close Trump ally, over what they say is an erosion of Hungary’s democratic rule, media freedom and minority rights.

For Hungary’s eastern neighbour Ukraine, an Orbán defeat could mean the unblocking of a 90-billion-euro European Union loan vital for Kyiv’s war effort. It would also deprive Russia of its closest ally in the EU.

Orbán has cast the election as ⁠a choice between “war and peace.” During campaigning, the government blanketed the country with signs warning that Tisza leader Magyar would drag Hungary into Russia’s war with Ukraine, something he strongly denies.

“I am looking forward to Sunday’s election with the best hope,” Orbán told supporters in his birthplace Szekesfehervar.

“If we know ourselves well, if we know our country well and if we know our own people well, ‌then I must say Hungarians will vote for safety on Sunday,” he added.

Public discontent

Orbán has won public endorsements from the Trump administration — culminating in a visit to Budapest by Vice-President JD Vance last week — as well as from the Kremlin and far-right leaders in Europe.

But his campaign has been shaken by media reports alleging that his government colluded with Moscow.  Orbán, who denies any wrongdoing, says his goal is to protect Hungary’s national identity and traditional Christian values within the EU and its security ​in a dangerous world.

Meanwhile, former Orbán loyalist Magyar, 45, has tapped into discontent over alleged state corruption and falling living standards, with young voters particularly eager for change.

Kriszta Tokes, a 24-year-old who sells postcards ⁠and trinkets in Budapest, said she is “very excited but also very scared.”

“I know that my future depends on this,” she said, adding that she plans to leave Hungary if Orbán wins.

While Orbán’s party has done good things “on paper,” ⁠Tokes said, referring to massive fiscal handouts he has provided to shore up support, she believed young people were struggling more than the government realized. 

Orbán’s low popularity among under-30s 

To address ⁠a popularity ⁠rating of just eight per cent among under-30s, Orbán has scrapped income tax for ​the youngest workers and launched a subsidized mortgage scheme to help first-time buyers onto the housing ladder amid the EU’s steepest rise in house prices under his rule.

But Magyar’s offer of change ​appears to resonate more.

In a final push in the ⁠eastern town of Miskolc on Friday, Magyar said: “This will be a referendum… about our country’s place and our country’s future.”

Analysts caution that the outcome of the vote remains uncertain, with many undecided voters, a redrawing of the electoral map in favour of Fidesz and a high proportion of ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries, who mostly support the ruling party.

They say anything from a Tisza supermajority — able to change the constitution — to a Fidesz majority is possible.

If Tisza does win, unwinding the legal and institutional changes Orbán has made may prove a daunting task for a new government if it has a simple majority ⁠in parliament.