How Russia is dealing with off-script realities of its war on Ukraine

A large number of drones were reportedly flying over Russian territory this week, prompting comments from Moscow.

Officials blamed Ukraine, but said the attack did not cause significant damage.

Between Monday night and Tuesday, four drones were said to have been spotted in the border region of Belgorod and another in nearby Bryansk, while a different drone reportedly attacked an oil refinery in Tuapse, according to The Associated Press. A separate drone crashed in Adygea, while another was in Gubastovo, closer to Moscow.

These episodes, which Ukraine does not claim, have marked an uncertain period for Russia in its continuous, bloody and costly invasion.

But Russia does not call it a war, but a “special military operation” – a euphemism used throughout the conflict.

Russia observers say Moscow’s narrative has a central tension — a message that everything will go according to plan challenged by contradictory events that call for explanation.

“When it comes to drones, or rocket attacks, or the explosion of the Crimean bridge a few months ago, this tension is there,” said Stanislav Budnitsky, an expert on Russian media politics at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

Reality and TV

Budnitsky said Russia’s Channel One, the state broadcaster, was covering recent drone strikes.

He watched a report about drones on a nightly program. It was 30 seconds long and was the fifth item shown to the audience that night.

The report emphasized the fact that the attack failed and “everything was intercepted.”

The drone report is juxtaposed with stories about the effectiveness of Russia’s defense systems, with a particular focus on its capabilities in the recently annexed part of Ukraine.

“I don’t think it’s an accident that immediately follows reports that some drones have reached Russia,” Budnitsky said.

He also noted that the news about the drone was brief – the report about chess that was shown later in the broadcast was given twice.

Moscow talking points

Ukraine has proven its ability to attack targets in Russian-controlled areas such as Crimea, but also in Russia itself.

However, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted Wednesday that Ukraine “wages a defensive war to seize all its territory” and “does not invade Russian territory.”

On the Russian side of the border, however, official statements “admit that the attack took place,” said Oleg Ignatov, a Brussels-based Russia analyst with the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization. “He didn’t deny it.”

Ignatov said some drones could evade Russian defenses, or the system would be ineffective.

“As a general rule, I don’t see any … comments on this,” he said, noting state media coverage focused on the talk of Russian officials.

But in reading what officials have to say about this recent drone incident, some experts see another story being told.

“Well, Russia wants to have some kind of blitzkrieg, but this is already the second year [conflict]”said Olena Morozova, assistant professor of Ukrainian studies at the University of British Columbia.

“So, now, they need something else to improve,” Morozova said, leading officials to find something people can fear.

“In this situation, it is: ‘Look here … Ukraine is trying to cross the border and this is terrible.”

Morozova, who was in Kharkiv when Russia began its offensive last year, said Moscow also used this messaging as a way to tout its defense capabilities while conveying “you should be afraid, you should be afraid of what’s happening.”

However, there are legitimate reasons for concern, as drones have been used in high-profile attacks in conflicts elsewhere.

And Russia’s long borders and vast geography present defensive challenges.

Peter A. Wilson, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation think-tank, said Russia has the tools to defend itself, but they cannot be deployed in all locations at the same time.

He said the “real threat” could be the possibility of swarming attacks, in which large numbers of drones are used in a joint attack – a scenario Russian war bloggers have pointed out after recent incidents.

It is difficult to measure the general view

What people in Russia infer from what they are told about drones and other events is hard to say – because a true picture of public opinion can be difficult to gauge from outside the country.

“The question of how people on the ground are reacting to all of this and what they’re thinking, I don’t think we can tell from what the Kremlin is saying,” said Maya Vinokour, an assistant professor in the Department. Russian and Slavic Studies at New York University.

Ignatov, of the International Crisis Group, said that he often saw experts reacting to reports of drone sightings – one of which claimed a drone had flown near him. country houseor country house.

At this point, Ignatov believes that the drone report may be painful for the Russian authorities in terms of public image, perhaps showing “the situation is worse than in official statements.”

For Morozova, who has seen war up close, the image some Russians may have of drones doesn’t match the level of devastation many Ukrainians see as missiles hit their cities.

“If you can see the damage that was done to my city – specifically, what I saw – it’s very little, compared to a few drones falling everywhere, not harming anybody,” he said.